OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
A noted pollster was impressed — and perhaps a bit nervous — that former President Donald Trump is polling so close to President Joe Biden in a “reliable” Democratic state following his ‘hush money’ conviction.
Frank Luntz made his remarks regarding Biden and Trump’s polling numbers in Minnesota, which has gone for Democratic presidential candidates for decades.
Trump lost Minnesota in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, with Biden presently leading the former president by 2.3% in a two-way race, according to the RealClearPolling average. Luntz, on “CNN News Central,” described the race being “close” in such a Democratic-leaning state as noteworthy and highlighted the significance of Trump polling well against Biden despite the recent felony conviction.
“To me, it’s not that Donald Trump is winning so big in Iowa. That’s not the story. It’s that he’s making it close in Minnesota. Minnesota is a reliable Democratic state. It votes Democrat in every presidential campaign. In poll after poll, I see Trump within two or three points in Minnesota. I don’t think the media understands exactly what’s going on right now,” said Luntz.
“Yes, Trump dropped a few points after being found guilty on 34 felony counts. But remember this, that would have destroyed any candidate as recently as 10 years ago,” he continued. “And the fact that Donald Trump is still even with, or in some cases leading, Joe Biden after being found guilty of 34 felonies, oh my God, that is so significant.”
WATCH:
‘Oh My God’: Frank Luntz Impressed Trump ‘Making It Close’ Race In ‘Reliable’ Dem State After Conviction pic.twitter.com/k8W5MJFRJo
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) June 19, 2024
Luntz mentioned in March that Arizona and Nevada would be significant indicators in the upcoming election because of their large Latino populations, potentially making them representative of the entire country.
“The Latino vote, 20%, can be 20% of the electorate,” he said then. “To me, that’s the deciding vote, and if they switch in Arizona, in Nevada, I would expect it to be happening nationwide, so watching those two states is my indicator of what’s going to happen in 2024.”
CNN’s senior political data analyst appeared genuinely stunned during a Monday network segment by the rising level of support among black Americans for Trump.
Analyst Harry Enten, who has been tracking Trump’s rising support among the black community, noted it has now reached a historic level in the modern era for a Republican presidential contender, adding the voting bloc will prove crucial to winning battleground states like Georgia and Wisconsin.
A recent New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in May found that Trump has considerably narrowed his gap with President Joe Biden among black Americans in six battleground states, with Biden leading Trump 70% to 18%. Enten expressed surprise on “CNN News Central” about Trump’s performance among black voters as a Republican candidate and noted Biden’s growing unpopularity with the demographic.
“I keep looking for this to change, to go back to a historical norm, and it, simply put, has not yet,” Enten told host John Berman to begin the segment. “So this is the margin, or, Biden and Trump among black voters, compare where we were at this point in 2020, compare to where we are now.
“At this point, look at this. In 2020, Joe Biden was getting 86% of the African American vote. Look at where it is now. It’s 70%, that’s a 16-point drop, John,” he continued. “And more than that, it’s not just that Joe Biden is losing ground. It’s that Donald Trump is gaining ground. You go from 7%, single-digits at this point in 2020, to now 21%, and again, John, I keep looking for signs that this is going to go back to normal, and I don’t see it yet in the polling of anything right now.
“Look at black voters under the age of 50,” the data reporter continued. “Holy cow, folks, holy cow. Look at this. Joe Biden was up by 80 points among this group back at this point in 2020; look at where that margin has careened down. It’s now just, get this: 37 points. That lead has dropped by more than half.
“I’ve just never seen anything like this. I’m like speechless because you always look at history and you go, ‘okay, this is a historic moment.’ If this polling is anywhere near correct, we’re looking at a historical moment right now, where black voters under the age of 50, which have historically been such a big part of the democratic coalition, are leaving in droves,” he added.
