OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Former President Donald Trump will have an advantage over President Joe Biden in the first presidential debate on Thursday.
According to a recent poll by The New York Times and Siena College, 48 percent of Americans would vote for Trump if the 2024 race were held now and just Trump and Biden were on the ticket.
Roughly 42 percent of the 1,226 registered voters polled said they would vote for Biden, while 10 percent said they “don’t know” or “refused” to vote.
Preliminary polling leading up to the November election indicates that both candidates will likely face off in a head-to-head race for a second term in office. In recent months, Trump has performed better in important swing states like Georgia and Pennsylvania, both of which voted blue in the 2020 election. However, Biden looks to have a hold on young voters, who have played an important role in Democrats’ election victories in recent years.
According to research site FiveThirtyEight, regarded as one of the best pollsters in the country, the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll revealed that people overwhelmingly oppose either candidate’s second term. Nearly 60% rate Biden as “somewhat unfavorable” or “very unfavorable.” Approximately 52% expressed the same thing about Trump.
While both candidates face criticism from their respective parties, Trump appears to have a firm hold on Republican voters. Despite the former president’s conviction last month on 34 felony counts of manipulating business documents, 68 percent of respondents indicated it had no impact on their vote.
Polling has not been good for Biden lately.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, revealed that “voters who think the cost of living is rising support Trump over Biden, 56% to 32%.”
Kimball added: “Income perception aligns with candidate preference, with those feeling their income is far below average favoring Trump 50% to 32% and those feeling it’s far above average favoring Biden 55% to 29%.”
Trump has 46% of the vote, compared to 43% for Biden, according to the Emerson College poll. Since Emerson’s survey from earlier this month, Biden has seen a two-point decline. In contrast, Trump kept his 46% of the vote.
Emerson also examined how voters are attracted to Biden or Trump based on the number of hours they put in at work each week.
Not even close, for those who work the hardest to make a living.
From Emerson: “Analysis of voter work hours reveals distinct candidate preferences. Non-workers are evenly split: 45% support Trump, 44% Biden. Those working 30 hours or less favor Biden over Trump (52% to 37%), while those in the 30-40 hour bracket are divided (45% Biden, 43% Trump). Trump gains support among those working 40-60 hours, with increasing margins as hours increase, peaking at 80% for those working over 60 hours, compared to 7% for Biden.”
Below are some more of the topline findings from the Emerson poll:
–On a ballot test including independent candidates, 44% support Trump, 40% Biden, 8% Robert Kennedy Jr., and 1% Cornel West; 8% are undecided.
–Kennedy Jr. has the support of 13% of independent voters, 12% of voters under 30, and 9% of Black voters.
–In a hypothetical ballot test for the 2024 U.S. congressional elections, a generic congressional Democrat and Republican are tied at 45%, while 11% are undecided.
–Among undecided voters in the presidential election, 31% support the Democratic congressional candidate, and 19% the Republican; 50% are undecided in the generic congressional election.
–The economy is the top issue for 36% of voters, followed by immigration at 21%, threats to democracy at 10%, healthcare at 9%, abortion access at 7%, and crime at 6%.
–Compared with American families in general, 44% of voters think their family income is average, while 38% think it is below average, and 18% think their family income is above average.
A majority of voters (56%) are unsure if they are getting an accurate picture of how the war is going in Israel and Gaza, while 25% think they are and 19% think they are not.
“Perceptions of receiving accurate war information show a significant split,” Kimball noted. “Biden leads among those who think they are getting accurate information (53% to 36%), while Trump leads among skeptics (53% to 38%). Those unsure are divided, with 44% leaning toward Trump and 42% toward Biden.”
Things are getting desperate for Biden and his administration as they prepare to face Trump in this election.
The coalition of voters he galvanized to defeat the former president in the 2020 presidential election appears to be crumbling and that includes black voters, the Washington Examiner reported.
A recent poll shows that 30 percent of black men in seven swing states are planning to vote for the former president, which represents a massive increase from the 12 percent who supported him in 2020.
The president is still anticipated to carry the black vote, with 57 percent saying they will vote Democrat, but that is a marked collapse from 2020 and could mean the end of the tenure of President Biden.
“In the same poll, 42% of black women surveyed revealed they are still uncertain or persuadable in their voting choice. In 2020, 6% of black women voted for Trump. Now, 11% said they are definitely or probably going to vote for Trump,” the report said.
“In this particular election, the persuasion isn’t just to vote or not to vote,” Adrianne Shropshire, head of BlackPAC, a Democratic super PAC, said. The persuasion is actually to get people to come to Biden and away from third parties and away from Trump.”
