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2024 Race Between Trump, Biden So Close This One Variable Could Decide It All: Survey

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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.


A recent poll shows that the presidential election between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is extremely close, with the winner likely depending on which candidate can muster the most support from eligible voters.

A recent national poll conducted by the Marquette Law School found that Trump received 51% of the vote to Biden’s 48% among registered voters, but that Biden had a slight 51%-49% edge among “likely” voters.

The poll shows that registered voters who are “very” or “somewhat” enthusiastic about the 2024 election favor Trump by a margin of 54% to 46%, Fox News reported.

“The difference in advantage shows how the outcome of the election may be determined by the success of respective efforts to mobilize voters over the coming 13 months,” the survey states.

Among “reluctant” voters, Biden leads Trump 47% to 51%.

The poll shows that 12% of voters intend to elect someone else besides Biden or Trump, with 4% saying they do not plan to vote.

“Registered voters view Trump as better able to handle the economy, immigration, inflation, creating jobs, and foreign relations, while Biden is seen as better at handling Medicare and Social Security, abortion policy, and climate change. A significant share says there is no difference or that neither candidate would be good on each issue,” the survey says.

A separate poll found even better news for Trump.

A leading pollster some consider to be the top in the nation has predicted a potential “electoral landslide” for Trump next year as Biden continues to slide in approval ratings and “Bidenomics” continues to eat into ordinary Americans’ paychecks.

In an interview with radio host Michael Patrick Leahy, pollster John McLaughlin discussed what current state and national polling mean, what polls to watch, and how to analyze new polling as it comes out in the months ahead.

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McLaughlin began by noting that the more legal trouble Trump faces, the more his polling numbers rise.

“We see, apparently, every time the Department of Justice or a state left-wing district attorney indicts Donald Trump, his poll numbers go up,” Leahy began. “I’m looking at the Morning Consult poll today. Just came out: Trump 61; DeSantis 13; Haley 7; Ramaswamy 7; Pence 5; Christie 3; Scott 1; Burgum 1. Trump by 48 points.

“Morning Consult has Trump and Biden tied, but I’ve seen Trump up 9 in the Washington Post poll; and Trump up 3 in another. The polls say it’s looking good for Donald J. Trump,” he added, swinging it over to McLaughlin:

Yeah, I wish the election was tomorrow – and probably so do a lot of Americans, because when you refer to that Morning Consult poll as a tie? It’s a poll of 5,000 registered voters, not likely voters.

And the Trump voters are the most intense to come out. So we’re leading in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls.

We never saw this, by the way, in 2020 or 2016. We were, we were never ahead in the national popular vote, and we just got a national poll back last Wednesday of our own of 1,000 likely voters – people who tell us that they’re going to vote, that’s modeled after the 2020 turnout that has 46 percent telling us they voted for Biden in 2020 and only 42 percent saying they voted for Trump.

And Trump is winning that poll, 47 to 43 over Joe Biden, which means there’s a 2020 Biden voter, who’s now a 2024 Trump voter, and Trump is winning in the national popular vote.

We got a poll yesterday for Newt Gingrich that we do work for, and Joe Biden has a 59 percent job disapproval.

I mean, the voters in America are not stupid, they’re smart, and they’re saying, ‘Trump was a good president. I was paying 2 a gallon for gas. I could go to the supermarket and for a family of four. You know, my food would cost us for that trip, maybe $200, $300. Now it’s $400, $500.’

And they’re being told by Bidenomics is good. They don’t believe it. And this poll, when we asked Bidenomics, they had a 24 favorable, 47 unfavorable among all voters – and that’s what Biden’s basing his campaign on.

And they’re telling us the economy is getting worse, not better, 67 to 25.

In our poll, they’re saying that the country’s on the wrong track, 69 percent.

So here’s Joe Biden indicting his leading political opponent four times in five months.

And now they’re trying to ruin him financially in New York with the Democrat supporter of Joe Biden, Letitia James, trying to basically take away his whole business, his multi-billion dollar empire. She’s trying to gut it. And it looks political to the vast majority of Americans.

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So he’s going up in the polls because the voters are looking at this, and they’re saying, ‘Why are these other Republicans bickering instead of supporting him?’ I mean, if you can indict your leading political opponent, there’s no reason for the Republican Party to exist.

The RNC has not come to bat for him; the Republican National Committee – they haven’t put a lawyer in any of these courtrooms trying to defend Donald Trump. I mean, what is the point of having an opposition party?

If your leading candidate can go to jail and, and mark my words, they want to put Donald Trump in jail.

“And John, of course, the president is not elected by a national popular vote. The president is elected by the electoral college, meaning there are 50 – well, 51 if you had District of Columbia – separate races,” the host offered. “And in those races, it’s looking, I think, even better for Donald Trump in a straight Trump v. Biden matchup. Do I have that right?”

McLaughlin then made a startling prediction:

Yes, because it would be an electoral landslide because when you look at it, due to the census, there’s a little more electoral vote our way.

But if you look at the toss-up states from last time and you say, ‘This means he’s going to win Wisconsin, Michigan’ – that’s why I went to Detroit last week to stand up for union workers, going to lose their jobs in China.

Arizona has 11 electoral votes.

Nevada 6 – we could win that. That was close last time.

We’ll win Georgia because they changed the election law to require a voter ID, not just for in-person, but also for absentee – there’re 16 electoral votes there.

We got a shot at Pennsylvania in spite of their trying to manipulate the mail-in votes. There’s 19 electoral votes there.

And Ohio has 7 – Ohio, we’re gonna win.

But there are 77 electoral votes that would switch.

So we would go from last time, 232 electoral votes – we’d be at 304 already.

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