OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
An anomaly with polling from The New York Times and Siena College should concern Democrats who are hoping to retain control of the Senate heading into the November elections.
The new poll unveiled on Monday showed that former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in five key swing states, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And only 33 percent of registered voters said they would vote for President Biden if the election was held now but 40 percent said they would vote for Trump.
The news is not the same when it comes to elections for the Senate, as 45 percent of voters are shown to be favoring Democrats, and 40 percent favor Republicans. That said, some election strategists who spoke to The Daily Caller said Democrats should not get too hyped about that.
“It shows you the depths of disappointment that most voters have with Biden, whether they’re Democrats or Republicans. There’s just a lot of disappointment in Biden. If I were Biden, I would be extremely alarmed by this gap that you’ve got voters out there saying, ‘Yeah, I’d like to vote for this Democratic senator, but not Joe Biden.’ That is a huge red flag for them,” CNN analyst Scott Jennings, a Kentucky Republican, said.
“One thing a poll doesn’t simulate is turnout. So, if Joe Biden is weak at the top of the ticket, we have two problems for the Democratic party. First one is he’s weak at the top of the ticket. He’s likely to lose,” communications adviser Mark R. Weaver said.
“But problem number two for the rest of the ticket is when the top of your ticket is weak, it depresses turnout of your base. So those people who are senators who are scoring higher in the poll in the cross tabs, that’s with people who got on the phone or got online and took the poll. That’s not measuring that many of them won’t actually show up to vote for that Democratic senate candidate because they’re so depressed or disillusioned with Joe Biden,” he said.
Some believe that the reason for the gap is that Republicans have been more effective at targeting Biden than they have been at messaging against the Democrat Party.
“I would think that is a logical reasoning for the gap. That is a logical reason. So I would ascribe to that possibility … Let it all be blamed on Biden and therefore all cleaned up,” Robert Cahaly, who founded the polling company the Trafalgar Group, said.
Weaver and Jennings agreed with the assessment but also said the timing of the poll could have played a part.
“I think that’s possible, but that messaging would come later in the campaign. That’s a September message. That’s not a May message. Right now, most Republican Senate candidates are not spending money advertising, they’re organizing,” Weaver said.
“But it’s awfully early to measure that because you’re not seeing large amounts of Republican Senate advertising yet. It’s too early to be messaging,” he said.
Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said that he believed Republicans had a messaging issue but said that another reason could be that state candidates are focusing on state issues.
“I do think there’s a Republican message problem,” he said. “And you know, one of the reasons is that, in my opinion, is abortion. People see Trump Republicans making all sorts of threats about a national abortion ban. And even older districts who are willing to vote for Donald Trump for president don’t want a national abortion ban.”
Democrat strategist Leslie Marshall is optimistic that polls can change as the election draws closer.
“So am I saying those polls are wrong? No, not necessarily. But we all know, polls are a snapshot in time. And whether you look back to the election of 1972, actually, from 1972, all the way to 2020. The polls at this time have been off, you know, whether it’s three, four, or five or more points from where we are in November, and then things are going to change by the time November comes around,” she said.
