OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
President Joe Biden appears to be coming up on the short end of the stick in a big battleground state when it comes to the effect of third-party candidates for the White House.
According to a poll of registered Michigan voters conducted by Fox News, in a rematch of their 2020 contest, former President Donald Trump gets 47 percent to Biden’s 45 percent, though Trump’s 2-point lead is well within the survey’s margin of error.
While Trump won Michigan by a slim half-point margin in 2016, Biden won the state by just 3 points in 2020. Trump’s win was the first for a GOP candidate in Michigan since Ronald Reagan’s resounding victory in 1988.
“Biden’s best groups include those that traditionally go Democratic, including liberals, Black voters, suburban women, those voting on the abortion issue and voters with a college degree. He’s also ahead with those living in union households, voters ages 65 and over, and women,” Fox News added.
“While he still has a substantial lead among Black voters, Biden’s 68% share today is down significantly from the 93% he won in 2020, according to the Fox News voter analysis election survey. He’s also lagging his 2020 numbers among women, voters under age 45, men under 45 and independents,” the outlet continued.
Fox added that Biden won voters under 45 and independents in 2020, but both groups now favor Trump.
Trump garners his strongest backing from conservatives, particularly those who prioritize immigration and border security in their voting decisions, as well as from white evangelical Christians, whitess without a college degree, and rural voters. Additionally, he enjoys support from younger voters, men, white voters, and independents.
When the number of candidate choices expands to five, Trump has an even larger advantage – 5 points, or 42-37 percent, “with third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receiving 11%, Jill Stein 3% and Cornel West 2%,” Fox reported.
In that situation, Biden retains 77 percent of his 2020 voters compared to Trump retaining 87 percent of his 2020 voters.
“Third-party candidates are draining twice as much support from Biden as from Trump,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican Daron Shaw. “While many currently supporting third-party candidates will gravitate back to major party candidates by Election Day, a low level of third-party support could make a difference in a close election if the defections come disproportionately from Biden.”
Michigan voters prioritize the economy as the top issue, with 6 in 10 stating it will be extremely important in determining their presidential vote. Approximately half express similar levels of importance for election integrity, immigration and border security, and healthcare. Fewer voters focus on abortion, foreign policy, climate change, and the Israel-Hamas conflict as extremely important factors in their voting decisions.
Fox adds:
Each candidate is favored on four issues, but Trump is trusted by double-digit margins on two of the highest priorities, including the top issue — the economy — while Biden is preferred by smaller single-digit margins on ones that are somewhat less important to voters.
Regarding the Middle East conflict, Michigan voters are twice as likely to side with Israelis over Palestinians.
Looking at views among voting blocs show some of Biden’s challenges on this issue. While most Republicans side with Israel, Democrats split between Israelis and Palestinians, and liberals and young voters are more likely to favor Palestinians.
“Even though Trump is the challenger and has had to negotiate a competitive primary, he has locked down almost all Republican partisans,” Shaw said in the analysis. “The issue climate isn’t terrible for Biden here, but he has significant work to do to recover Democrats and traditionally Democratic constituencies. If he can’t improve his showing with African Americans and younger voters, he is heading toward a one-term presidency.”
Also, Biden is underwater by 12 points in Michigan, with 44 percent approving of his performance as president versus 56 percent who do not.
