Oregon hasn’t elected a Republican governor in four decades, but a new poll showing GOP state Sen. Christine Drazan narrowly ahead of Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek has put that streak under renewed scrutiny.
The survey gives Republicans a potentially powerful fundraising message as the two former state House leaders prepare for a rematch of their closely contested 2022 gubernatorial campaign.
Drazan received support from 48% of registered voters surveyed, compared with 44% for Kotek, according to a polling memorandum obtained by The Oregonian/OregonLive.
Oregon voters last elected a Republican governor in 1982, when Victor Atiyeh secured a second term, and Democrats have controlled the office continuously since January 1987.
Kotek defeated Drazan in 2022 with approximately 47% of the vote to the Republican’s 43.5%, while unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson captured nearly 9%.
Johnson’s presence divided voters dissatisfied with Democratic leadership and complicated Drazan’s effort to assemble the coalition necessary to win a statewide race in traditionally Democratic Oregon.
Drazan has attempted to center the election on Oregon-specific concerns, including housing costs, homelessness, public safety, education, and the broader cost of living.
Her campaign has held prominent events in downtown Portland designed to reinforce its argument that years of Democratic control have failed to resolve the state’s most visible problems.
Kotek enters the final stretch facing widespread dissatisfaction over conditions in Oregon, giving Drazan an opportunity to present the election as a referendum on the incumbent’s record.
Drazan’s campaign wants the opposite dynamic, keeping voters focused on state government and asking whether Democratic leadership has produced acceptable results on everyday concerns.
Republicans are entering the final stretch of the 2026 midterm elections backed by a formidable financial operation, as President Trump’s political network and national GOP committees pour money into critical House and Senate contests.
Trump said this month that his political war chest is approaching $1 billion and that he has allocated roughly $400 million to $500 million for the midterms, while also intending to preserve some resources for the 2028 cycle.
The centerpiece is MAGA Inc., the pro-Trump super PAC that accumulated more than $400 million by this summer, giving the president’s allies a large pool of money for a non-presidential election year.
That money is now moving rapidly.
Since September began, MAGA Inc. and other Trump-linked super PACs have invested more than $130 million in races nationwide through reserved advertising.
One vehicle is No Going Back PAC, a Trump-linked super PAC that has booked advertising across battleground Senate states, including Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Alaska, and Georgia, while also targeting competitive House districts.
MAGA Inc. launched a $10 million advertising campaign supporting Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton, while a Senate Leadership Fund-linked Texas PAC separately began an eight-figure campaign and planned continuous advertising through Election Day.
The Republican apparatus also enters the closing weeks with substantial resources.
New federal filings showed the Republican national party committees finished August with approximately $234 million in cash, about $100 million more than their Democratic counterparts.
Federal Election Commission records show the Republican National Committee reported approximately $125.6 million in cash on hand through August 31, after collecting roughly $316.3 million during the 2025-2026 cycle.
Senate Republicans are deploying money aggressively.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee allocated $46.5 million in coordinated spending across eight states, including $5.3 million in New Hampshire and $4.2 million in Michigan, Axios reported.
House Republicans are also taking advantage of new campaign-finance rules following a Supreme Court ruling that removed limits on coordinated party spending.
The National Republican Congressional Committee reserved nearly $9 million in coordinated television advertising across more than 20 House races during September, according to Axios.
The spending demonstrates how Republicans are using their financial advantage to defend vulnerable seats and compete for Democratic-held territory during the campaign’s final weeks.
“I’m going to spend whatever amount of money necessary to try and help us,” Trump said September 4, while adding that he expects money to remain available for 2028.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
