Iowa, long a red state stronghold which has backed President Donald Trump in three consecutive elections, is drawing increased political attention as Democrats look to compete more aggressively in upcoming races.
Recent polling and political analysis suggest Democrats are targeting the governor’s office, a U.S. Senate seat, and multiple House districts, though Republican leaders in the state have dismissed the likelihood of a major shift.
Some voters in the highly agricultural state have expressed increasing concerns about issues such as tariffs, the conflict involving Iran, and the cost of living, factors analysts say could influence the political environment heading into November, the Washington Times reports.
“Iowa is in play. We’re gonna win this governor’s race, we’re gonna take back the House, and we are going to flip this U.S. Senate seat,” said Josh Turek, a Democrat running to fill the Senate seat now held by Republican Joni Ernst, who decided earlier this year to not seek reelection.
The leading Democratic contender in Iowa’s governor’s race is Rob Sand, the current state auditor, who has built a public profile through social media posts about bow hunting and pizza reviews, highlighting his personal interests as well as his anti-fraud work involving both parties.
Iowa has elected Republican governors since 2006, but recent polling suggests a competitive race. Sand leads Rep. Randy Feenstra by 12 points in a survey from Echelon Insights and by 8 points in an earlier poll conducted by GBAO.
State politics analyst Patrick Rynard has offered explanations for Sand’s apparent momentum, pointing to factors shaping the current political landscape.
“Iowans already know Rob Sand as an authentic Iowan. They’ll only know Randy Feenstra as a politician,” Rynard recently wrote, per the Times.
The same survey from Echelon Insights showed Democratic candidates Mr. Turek and Zach Wahls narrowly leading Rep. Ashley Hinson in a potential U.S. Senate race.
The poll had a relatively small sample size and a margin of error of 6.6 percentage points, meaning actual voter sentiment could vary significantly. Even so, the results have increased optimism among Democrats about competing for a Senate seat in Iowa for the first time in nearly two decades, as well as targeting two Republican-held House districts currently viewed as highly competitive.
Earlier this month, the Cook Political Report shifted the state’s governor’s race to a “toss-up” rating.
A new survey of competitive House districts found further challenges for Republicans, including in key races in Iowa.
The poll, which surveyed voters across dozens of battleground districts, showed President Donald Trump with a net negative approval rating. Overall, 42% of likely voters said they approve of his performance, while 58% said they disapprove.
Among independent voters—an important and growing bloc in Iowa, generally—the survey found disapproval of Trump at 70%, highlighting potential headwinds for Republican candidates in those areas.
“Voters are deeply frustrated with Trump and are willing to overlook their antipathy to Democrats in order to put a check on the president,” Cook Political’s Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter and Managing Editor Carrie Dann said.
Iowa Republican Chairman Jeff Kaufman told The Washington Times that Democrats are overstating their chances of winning statewide races in Iowa.
According to state registration data, Republicans maintain a sizable advantage, with roughly 702,000 registered Republicans compared to about 503,000 Democrats, based on figures from the Iowa Secretary of State.
More than 595,000 voters in Iowa are registered as independents, a group that recent polling suggests could play a decisive role in upcoming elections.
“Could they make some gains with some of the independent voters? Possibly,” Kaufmann told the outlet. “But I can guarantee you their bleeding Democratic registration is every bit a canary in the coal mine as some polls that show them ahead.”
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