OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Republicans are now “the early favorites,” to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections.
Cook Political Report Senior Editor David Wasserman told NBC News that Republicans are poised to retake the lower chamber for a variety of reasons.
“Based on all factors, you’d have to consider Republicans the early favorites for the House majority in 2022,” Wasserman said.
“But as we found out in 2020, surprises can happen, and it’s not a done deal,” he added. “Democrats’ best hope is that Biden’s approval rating stays above 50% and that Republicans have a tougher time turning out their voters without Trump on the ballot.”
Biden’s approval rating is now below 40%, which is far below the 50% approval that Wasserman argued was needed to help Democrats.
Earlier this year, a top House Democrat warned that the Republican Party is in a prime position to take back House in next year’s midterm elections.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Sean Patrick, who serves as a congressman from New York, says Democrats would lose their House majority if the midterms were held today.
Tim Persico, executive director of the Maloney-led DCCC, shared data with incumbents showing that several House Democrats are at risk of losing their seats to Republican challengers.
“We are not afraid of this data … We’re not trying to hide this,” Persico told Politico. “If [Democrats] use it, we’re going to hold the House. That’s what this data tells us, but we gotta get in action.”
“The point is, to make sure that we’re all on the same page, that we understand the stakes. Here’s the good news: Everything we are doing and everything we’ve talked about doing is incredibly popular,” he added.
Democrats are facing serious headwinds going into next year.
Republicans need a net gain of 5 seats to regain the House majority in the midterms next November.
A new survey by the National Republican Congressional Committed shows Democrats in big trouble months out from the midterm elections.
The latest NRCC survey of 77 battleground congressional districts around the country found that Democrats are being held responsible by voters for a myriad of problems and issues, including record inflation, sky-high oil and gas prices, and a spend-happy Congress and White House.
The NRCC’s battleground survey covered the 77 battleground congressional districts that could determine control of Congress after redistricting. The committee surveyed these districts because they are currently held by the most ‘at-risk’ Democrats, whose districts President Joe Biden won by only five and a half points or less.
Here are some additional findings from the survey:
— Republicans top Democrats on a generic ballot by 4 points; the NRCC noted again that Biden won these districts by 5 points in the 2020 election;
— Since February 2021, Republicans have improved by 7 points in the survey;
— Three-quarters of swing voters said they see Dems as being “out of touch” on the issues and “condescending” towards average Americans;
— The top concerns among voters in these districts — and around the country, according to previous, separate surveys — are the rising cost of living, jobs, and the economy overall, in which Republicans get better marks than Democrats;
— A large plurality — 46 percent — of respondents indicated they are most concerned with economic issues, while 26 percent said that the cost of living and inflation should be priorities of the Biden White House and the Dem-controlled Congress, and 15 percent are most concerned about jobs and the economy;
— The GOP holds a 24-point lead over Dems on the generic ballot, with respondents most concerned about the rising cost of living, and a 20-point advantage with those who are most concerned about jobs and the economy;
— Fully 52 percent lay the blame on the Biden administration and Congressional Democrats over the party’s unwillingness to allow more domestic oil production, which they say is mostly what has caused gas prices to rise to new highs;
— Just 31 percent of respondents blamed Russia for the spiking oil prices following its invasion of Ukraine;
— More than two-thirds, or 66 percent, say that spending by Democrats in Congress is out of control;
— Fifty-six percent said that high gas prices are hurting their families most, while 41 percent said that high food prices sting more.
