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CNN Expert Says Harris Has ‘More Room For Movement’ From Debate Than Trump

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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.


Vice President Kamala Harris is probably going to experience a larger shift in the polls than former President Donald Trump, according to CNN senior statistics analyst Harry Enten’s analysis on Tuesday.

Tuesday night’s first and only planned presidential debate between Harris and Trump is expected to be close, according to polls. The debate will air on ABC News. According to Enten on “CNN News Central,” those who aren’t sure about Trump have already made up their minds, but they may watch the debate to see how they feel about Harris.

“I think most voters have made up their minds about Donald Trump, specifically undecided voters. So how undecided voters feel, just need to learn more about Donald Trump, just 18% of undecided voters say they need to learn more about Donald Trump,” Enten said.

“But look at this, a near majority of undecided voters say they want or need to learn more about Kamala Harris. Look, undecided voters don’t really like either one of these folks, Donald Trump with just an 8% favorable, Kamala Harris, with just a 13% favorable,” Enten added.

“But the bottom line is there’s a lot more room for movement for Kamala Harris than there is for Donald Trump. So the real question tonight is, can Kamala Harris seize this opportunity, seize the spotlight, put to rest fears that they may have about her? Because the bottom line is undecided voters have already made up their mind about Donald Trump. They’re waiting to make up their mind about Kamala Harris and how they do so can make all the difference in the world at the end of the day come November,” Enten continued.

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According to Enten, Harris’s “last best chance to get them on her side of the equation and not go with the Republican nominee for president” may come during the debate.

Chris Cillizza, a former political analyst for CNN, said on Friday that he believes Harris “has more riding on” the debate than Trump due to the possibility of a turnaround in the vice presidential candidate’s polling.

“Trump has a very high floor in terms of voter support and a very low ceiling, he basically moves between 46% and 48% of the vote,” Cillizza said. “He doesn’t go to 52% or 51%. He doesn’t go to 40%. So I don’t know how his numbers move. I think she has potentially more movement there.”

Enten said that the presidential race is so “tight” that Trump will win the election if he “outperforms his current polls by just a single point.”

WATCH:

Before his Tuesday evening debate with Harris, Trump has excellent news thanks to a new electoral college model that a reputable pollster released on Monday.

Nate Silver’s forecast from last week gave Trump his highest probability of winning since late July, with a 60.1% chance of securing the Electoral College.

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In contrast, Harris had a 39.7% chance of victory.

Since then, Trump’s chances of winning have risen, with the forecast now giving him a 64.4% chance of securing the Electoral College, compared to Harris’ 35.3%.

Additionally, Harris’ likelihood of winning the popular vote has declined from 58% to 56%. The forecast projects Harris will win 256 electoral votes, while Trump is expected to secure 282.

Meanwhile, the model indicates that Republicans have gained between 0.3 and 1.2 points in each swing state over the past week. As a result, the former president is now projected to win all seven battleground states. Previously, the model had shown Harris and Trump neck-and-neck in Michigan and Wisconsin, Newsweek reported.

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