OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
White House officials and those closest to President Joe Biden are becoming increasingly concerned as the 2024 election cycle begins in earnest on Monday with the first-in-the-nation presidential primaries as former President Donald Trump surges.
For most of the past year, Biden’s polling numbers have been falling while Trump’s have risen, but Democrats grew even more concerned last week after a leading pollster took a deep dive into the results of a new survey regarding Biden’s job performance and approval one year out from the election, explaining that the data is much worse for him than what’s been reported in the media.
Revolver News, breaking down pollster Richard Baris’ assessment, explained the results of a new survey this way:
Key demographic groups aren’t just mad at Joe Biden; they’re abandoning him in droves. When you consider his historically low polls, this isn’t a traditional “presidential slump” that can be brushed off and fixed with some stumping and handshaking. What we’re witnessing right now, and what the media won’t tell you, is that this is a “CODE RED” in the political world. We’re watching the complete collapse of a political figure, and the media is in a frenzy, trying to cover it up.
“The Suffolk/USAToday Poll is showing what we’re all seeing, which is NOT a normal weak showing 1-year out for an incumbent president seeking re-election,” Baris said noted on the X platform.
“Historically, he’s far below Barack Obama at this point (who won) and significantly lower than Donald Trump (who lost). H.W. Bush was higher, but his approval was falling RAPIDLY from far higher than Biden has ever been,” he added.
“It’s not just that these demographic groups are ‘abandoning’ Joe Biden. Donald Trump is gaining among key Democratic constituencies, Hispanic, Under 35. It’s the one poll NOT showing gains among Black voters. Clearly he is in the consensus,” Baris continued.
“I’d just also note that ‘enthusiasm’ and ‘voting likelihood’ are not the same thing. Higher turnout benefits Trump. People need to get used to understanding that now,” he wrote.
“Lastly, while they are just reshuffling the bottom of the deck, Nikki Haley has overtaken Ron DeSantis nationally. Almost identical to our latest results @BIGDATAPOLL,” he said.
“Lastly, while they are just reshuffling the bottom of the deck, Nikki Haley has overtaken Ron DeSantis nationally. Almost identical to our latest results @BIGDATAPOLL,” he said.
The Suffolk/USAToday Poll is showing what we’re all seeing, which is NOT a normal weak showing 1-year out for an incumbent president seeking re-election.
Historically, he’s far below Barack Obama at this point (who won) and significantly lower than Donald Trump (who lost). H.W.…
— Rich Baris “The People’s Pundit” (@Peoples_Pundit) January 1, 2024
That said, others don’t believe Biden will remain in the race as his polling tanks and his cognitive abilities appear to be getting worse.
A prominent strategist at JPMorgan Chase asserted this month that Biden will withdraw, implying that there may already be preparations in motion for such an eventuality.
Michael Cembalest, who leads the financial giant’s market and investment strategy unit in JPMorgan Chase’s asset management division, believes Biden, 81, will leave the race “sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health concerns.”
Super Tuesday, set for March 5, encompasses primary elections in over a dozen states, including California, Texas, Massachusetts, Vermont, and North Carolina. In the modern era, the candidate who secures the majority of Super Tuesday primaries is typically seen as the frontrunner and the eventual nominee of the party.
Cembalest justified his prediction by citing Biden’s taking approval rating, especially for a president who can claim “around 10% job creation since his inauguration,” though much if not most of that was caused by Americans returning to the workforce after lengthy COVID shutdowns, which Cembalest noted in a forecast letter to investors and clients.
He didn’t predict who would take Biden’s spot but predicted it would be “a replacement candidate named by the Democratic National Committee.”
Conventional wisdom points to Vice President Kamala Harris as the logical successor, but she has historically been more unpopular than Biden.
