OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
The race for the seat of a retiring Pennsylvania Republican senator is taking a huge turn less than two months away from critical midterm elections that may define President Joe Biden’s next two years in office.
According to a Monmouth University survey released on Thursday, Trump-backed GOP contender Dr. Mehmet Oz is trailing Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, and by double digits.
Forty-nine percent of likely voters said they plan to cast a ballot for Fetterman, who recently suffered a stroke, compared to 39 percent who said they’ll vote for Oz, a noted television personality.
In addition, the hoodie-wearing Fetterman had a much better favorability rating — 47 percent compared to Oz’s 36 percent. In fact, Oz’s unfavorability rating was significantly higher than Fetterman’s at 52 percent, the survey revealed, according to WKBN.
At the same time, 45 percent of respondents said they would definitely not vote for Oz, while 38 percent said the same thing about his Democratic opponent.
However, voters who are supporting Oz are more motivated than Fetterman voters to get to the polls, 81 percent versus 78 percent.
“Fetterman has the edge when you look at basic candidate preferences. Oz will need to overcome his personal negatives or shift the issue picture to stay competitive,” noted Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, according to the outlet.
Notably, abortion was not the primary issue for Pennsylvania voters, as Democrats have been hoping:
According to the poll the top issues for Pennsylvania voters were financial-based with 30% saying the economy, 31% saying inflation, and 7% saying gas prices. Other issues include illegal immigration (14%), abortion (13%), democracy, voting and elections (11%), and crime (9%).
Republicans prioritize the economy (72%) and Democrats prioritized personal rights (59%).
When asked who they trust more on jobs, the economy, and the cost of living, 41% of voters choose Fetterman and 36% pick Oz. Fetterman also has larger advantages with “defending your values” (43% to 34% for Oz), as well as abortion (44% to 26%) and gun control (40% to 30%).
“The economy is an issue which could help Oz, but Fetterman currently has enough crossover appeal to negate it. In fact, the poll shows Fetterman is running stronger than the Democratic fundamentals in Pennsylvania would suggest,” added Murray.
A CBS News/YouGov poll taken this week shows the race tighter, but with Fetterman still edging out Oz, 52-47 percent.
“Of those who said they’ll support Fetterman, 24% said their vote was primarily because they oppose Oz. Fifty-six percent said they support Fetterman because they like him as a candidate and 20% support him because he’s the nominee,” WHTM reported, citing the survey.
“Comparatively, 54% of Oz voters say they’ll vote for him mainly to oppose Fetterman, but just 15% of Oz supporters say they’re voting for him because they like him. Thirty-one percent say they support Oz because he’s the party nominee,” the report added. “Additionally, 71% of Pennsylvania Republicans say they wish someone different was the Republican nominee, while 51% of Democrats say they wish there was a nominee other than Fetterman. Fifty percent said they like how Fetterman handles himself personally, while only 36% said the same for Oz.”
The biggest negative for Oz, according to the CBS News/YouGov survey, is that most respondents do not believe he has lived long enough in the state to understand Pennsylvania values.
In the race for governor, the Democratic candidate also has the advantage, according to the survey, according to WHTM in a separate report, with  Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro leading Trump-backed Republican Doug Mastriano. A CBS News/YouGov poll found that Shapiro is up 55-44 percent in that race.
While 55 percent of Democrats said they are happy with Shapiro as their candidate, 60 percent of Republicans wish that someone other than Mastriano was the nominee — though he won the state’s GOP gubernatorial primary handily, with 43.8 percent of the vote compared to just over 20 percent for the next-closest candidate, Lou Barletta.
Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016 but lost the state by a wider margin in 2020, according to certified results.
