OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
A Democrat-leaning pollster has Republicans leading the generic congressional ballot for the first time this year.
Tim Malloy, an analyst at Quinnipiac University Polling, shows the Republican Party with a lead in its latest generic congressional ballot poll just one year before the crucial 2022 midterm elections.
“Though the numbers are not overwhelming, they signal a potentially ominous trend for Democrats as a plurality of voters recommends tossing out the party that controls the House,” Malloy said.
The poll asked Americans which party they would prefer to control the House of Representatives if the election were held today.
Among registered voters, 47% said they would prefer Republicans, while 44% said they would rather see Democrats in control.
Fox News reported:
The numbers could be more troublesome for Democrats than they appear on the surface, due to Quinnipiac’s tendency to slightly bias toward their party. According to opinion poll analysis done by data journalism publication FiveThirtyEight, Quinnipiac receives an “A-” grade for accuracy but has a typical bias of about 0.5 points in favor of Democrats.
The survey, which was conducted between Oct. 1 and Oct. 4, represents the first time Republicans have led in the poll since Quinnipiac began asking the question in May.
Quinnipiac’s first generic congressional ballot poll of the 2022 cycle, which was conducted between May 18 and May 24, showed Democrats with a nine-point lead over Republicans.
Other pollsters have found similar trend lines favoring the GOP.
Republicans are now “the early favorites,” to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections.
Cook Political Report Senior Editor David Wasserman told NBC News that Republicans are poised to retake the lower chamber for a variety of reasons.
“Based on all factors, you’d have to consider Republicans the early favorites for the House majority in 2022,” Wasserman said.
“But as we found out in 2020, surprises can happen, and it’s not a done deal,” he added. “Democrats’ best hope is that Biden’s approval rating stays above 50% and that Republicans have a tougher time turning out their voters without Trump on the ballot.”
Last month, a top House Democrat warned that the Republican Party is in a prime position to take back House in next year’s midterm elections.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Sean Patrick, who serves as a congressman from New York, says Democrats would lose their House majority if the midterms were held today.
Three-quarters of senior Capitol Hill aides think Republicans are going to win back control of the House of Representatives in the 2021 midterm elections.
Several senior Capitol Hill aides and reported that a whopping 73 percent think Republicans will take the speaker’s gavel from Democrat Rep. Nancy Pelosi next November.
Republicans need a net gain of 5 seats to regain the House majority in the midterms next November.
And the once-in-a-decade redistricting process – pegged to the 2020 census – is expected to generally favor Republicans over Democrats.
