OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Democrats are increasingly concerned they could lose control of the Senate next year as they are forced to defend a large number of seats. But one state that concerns them most is Arizona.
There, a three-way race is brewing between Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat-turned-independent, Democratic Rep. Reuben Gallego, and a strong Republican candidate — perhaps even former GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who has announced her run for the seat.
It presents a unique situation in a new battleground state that has been red for years but is trending blue.
“Some Arizona Democrats expect Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) will support Gallego, even if behind the scenes, noting the animosity many in the party feel toward Sinema, especially after she switched to an independent last year, and her electoral prospects,” The Hill reported.
“But other members of the party believe that calculus is not as simple and say Senate Democrats will need to proceed cautiously, given she still caucuses with the party in the upper chamber, where Democrats have a narrow majority,” the outlet added.
A senior Democratic strategist told The Hill: “I 100 percent think it’s not clear because she’s an incumbent. She caucuses with the Democrats. She might not be a Democrat anymore, but she does caucus with us. I mean, so in that way, there’s an incumbency there. And to the extent that she hasn’t given any indication that she would stop caucusing with us, I think it puts us in a bind.”
The Hill added:
The strategist noted the 2006 Connecticut Senate Democratic primary, when Sen. Joe Lieberman, then running as a Democrat, lost the primary to fellow Democrat Ned Lamont. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) expressed their support for Lamont after his win, while Lieberman instead decided to run as an independent. Liberman later won against Lamont in the general election.
“He came back as an independent still caucusing with the Democrats but in a completely different, and I would probably say, in a spiteful and somewhat vindictive way,” the strategist added.
Sinema has not yet said she would actually run for reelection. But, according to NBC News last month, her team has been passing around a prospectus outlining the portions of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents that could eventually create a governing coalition.
Also, she hasn’t done much fundraising. The Hill noted, citing Federal Election Commission filings, that she finished the third quarter with about the same amount of cash on hand as she finished the second quarter, roughly $10.8 million.
Gallego, meanwhile, raised around $3 million last quarter and has around $5 million cash on hand.
Recent surveys show a tight three-way race if Sinema decides to run, though she would come out on the losing end. A new poll from GOP-linked firm National Research Inc. found that Lake is currently leading with 37 percent support, Gallego has 33 percent, and Sinema comes in third with 19 percent.
Democratic operatives also say she’ll have to gather enough signatures to qualify for the ballot.
“Between that and the fundraising situation that’s out there and a perceived lack of a ground game here, I think she’s got some strong headwinds, and I think that Schumer and Democratic leadership are certainly taking all of that into consideration as they figure out their next steps,” Matt Grodsky, former communications director for the Arizona Democratic Party and vice president at Matters of State Strategies, told The Hill.
“If she does get in, they’re gonna have to make calculated decisions on how that’s going to impact any legislation or deals they’re gonna have to negotiate with,” he added. “But I think by and large, even if it’s not publicly, I would imagine that privately they’ll be throwing their support where they can in Democrat Ruben Gallego’s direction, because I just don’t think that their constituencies are gonna be supportive of them doing anything else.”
