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POLL: Independents Shift To Republicans In Latest Round of Bad News for Dems

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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.


A new survey released on Tuesday by The New York Times and Siena College spells more bad news for Joe Biden and his Democratic Party.

According to the survey, independent women went from supporting Democrats by 14 points in September to supporting Republicans by 18 months in October, an astounding 32-point shift in a single month:

The poll shows that 49 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for a Republican to represent them in Congress on Nov. 8, compared with 45 percent who planned to vote for a Democrat. The result represents an improvement for Republicans since September when Democrats held a one-point edge among likely voters in the last Times/Siena poll.

The biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters. In September, they favored the Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points.

And as in most, if not all, recent polls from respected outlets, the Times/Siena survey found that inflation and the economy were the most important issues to voters — surpassing Jan. 6, climate change, abortion, and the pandemic by large margins.

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The truly independent voter demographic is clearly shifting to Republicans, as “the poll showed that Republicans opened up a 10-percentage point lead among crucial independent voters, compared with a three-point edge for Democrats in September, as undecided voters moved toward Republicans,” the Times reported.

“I’m shifting more towards Republican because I feel like they’re more geared towards business,” 37-year-old Democrat mortgage loan officer Robin Ackerman told the outlet. While she disagreed “1,000 percent” with the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, “that doesn’t really have a lot to do with my decision,” she continued, adding: “I’m more worried about other things.”

The Times added: “Democrats have no margin for error in 2022 — with the slimmest of majorities in the House and a 50-50 Senate, where the flipping of a single seat in that chamber would deliver a Republican majority.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in an interview with MSNBC, waved off the Times/Siena survey, however, claiming it is an “outlier.”

Host Andrea Mitchell, in questioning Pelosi, suggested that polling for Democrats was down despite an “extraordinary” legislative session.

“Despite all the legislative accomplishments, I want to cite them, I want to say it’s been an extraordinary session, you and the president have done so much in terms of domestic concerns, the economy. Why is this message, why do you think the president hasn’t gotten this message through to the voters?” MSNBC host Andrea Mitchell asked.

“Well, first of all, let me say that I think that much of what you’ve said I don’t agree with, that is to say ‘The New York Times’ poll, I think this is an outlier poll, you just cite one poll, but all the other polls,” the California Democrat began as the two then began talking over each other.

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“It’s also – the ‘RealClearPolitics’ average is showing similar issues,” Mitchell added.

“No, but these, but that was one that brought down the average, and it was an outlier. It wasn’t even that big a sample. So I – I dismissed that. I have been – since Congress adjourned, I’ve been in an average of five states a week. And I can tell you that women’s concerns about their freedom are very, very much still very significant in terms of how they will vote,” Pelosi claimed, adding that abortion is still a major issue for women despite polling that demonstrates otherwise.

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The Daily Caller added:

Democratic super PACs and campaigns have dropped nearly $18 million on abortion-related ads despite polls showing that economy and inflation issues rank higher amongst voter concerns. A July Monmouth University poll found abortion was the most important issue for just 5% of voters while 63% said inflation was their top issue.

Last month, top Republicans responded to Pelosi’s criticism of their “Commitment to America” plan, which they unveiled ahead of what were expected to be some highly competitive midterm elections.

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Their remarks came after Pelosi’s office put out a statement using what has become a standard Democratic Party attack line regarding the “MAGA” agenda of former President Donald Trump.

“Because the Democrats have caused inflation, crime in our streets by defunding the police, runaway spending causing inflation,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told Fox News. “Going after American energy and making the price of gas, causing inflation. This is a plan to fix the problems the Democrats have created, and I think the American public should have an election based upon ideas.”

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