OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Former President Donald Trump has flipped the script, so to speak, and is now leading all comers ahead of the 2024 presidential election cycle, according to a new survey. According to an Emerson College survey published on Tuesday, Trump leads President Joe Biden in a potential rematch 44-41 percent, which is nearly the opposite of Biden’s 45-41 percent lead in November.
The Washington Examiner added: “Biden is also barely treading water against Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, the only other potential Republican candidate with enough support to win the Republican presidential nomination. The survey found that Biden leads the newly reelected governor by less than a percentage point, 40% to 39%. What’s changed? Democratic support for Biden being the party’s nominee has decreased.”
“A majority of Democratic primary or caucus voters (58%) think President Biden should be the Democratic nominee in 2024, while 42% think it should be someone else. The share of Democratic voters who think Biden should be the nominee decreased six percentage points since the June Emerson poll, which found 64% support for Biden as the nominee, and 36% would rather it be someone else,” an analysis of the survey noted.
The survey’s researchers believe that Biden’s burgeoning classified documents scandal is hurting him politically.
That said, his overall approval rating has risen somewhat, though he remains underwater with 44 percent approving of his job performance versus 48 percent who disapprove.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said: “President Biden rebounded with independent voters this month: his 29% approval among independents in November increased to 38% in January. His approval also increased by nine points among college graduates, of whom 42% approved of Biden in November, now 51% in January. Women voters shifted from 40% approval of Biden to 46%, while male voters increased from 37% to 42% approval.”
He added that 55 percent of voters believe Trump will become the GOP nominee.
“Trump has maintained his 55% support in the GOP primary while DeSantis has increased his share nine points from 20% to 29%. Every other potential candidate is in single digits, including former Vice President Mike Pence at 6% and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 3%,” the Examiner continued.
Regarding Biden, who still hasn’t officially declared his candidacy, most Americans do not want him to run again, according to the December results of a CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
“The survey found 61% of the public think Trump should not seek the presidency, compared with 30% who believe he should. And 70% say Biden should not run for a second term with just 19% supporting a run,” CNBC reported, citing the survey’s results.
“Substantial numbers in each politicians’ own party prefer their names not be on the ballot, including 37% of Republicans who don’t want Trump to run along with 61% of independents and 88% of Democrats,” the report continued. “For Biden, 57% of Democrats say he shouldn’t stand for office in 2024 along with 66% of independents and 86% of Republicans.”
The report provided additional insights gleaned from the survey:
Biden has other problems other than age. Despite a stronger-than-expected showing by Democrats in the congressional elections and several legislative victories, Biden’s overall approval slipped to 41% from 46% in the October survey, with his disapproval rising to 54% from 50%. The President’s economic approval slipped to 38% from 40% and disapproval rose a point to 57%.
Just 20% of the public think the Biden administration’s efforts to ease inflation are helping, a five-point decline from October; 28% believe they are hurting, a two-point decline, and 49% say they’re not making much difference, a 7-point jump.
Pollsters went on to note that while most Democrats and Republicans do not want Biden and Trump, respectively, to run, they would nevertheless support both of them if they became their party’s presidential nominee. Trump has formally announced a 2024 run, while Biden has yet to do so; should Biden decline to run again, it isn’t clear that Vice President Kamala Harris is the odds-on favorite to win what would likely be a bruising Democratic primary season.
In fact, previous reports have indicated that influencers are urging Biden to ditch Harris ahead of the election.
In a scathing piece published by Slate titled, “If Biden Runs Again, He Should Pick a New VP,” Christina Cauterucci noted how “we are stuck with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris” for now but that Biden may be able to “change that” going into 2024.