OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Former President Donald Trump has all but locked the Republican nomination for President of the United States and no votes have yet been cast.
His nomination to be the 2024 nominee appears to be all but assured, barring some massive calamity that would change things for him, a new poll showed.
A new 2024 Iowa caucus poll by the Des Moines Register showed that the former president is miles ahead of his competition, NBC reporter Steve Kornacki said on the MSNBC show “Morning Joe.”
“35 days, or almost exactly a month, until the Iowa caucuses. This is what we’re going to show you, our brand-new NBC News/Des Moines Register poll. The Des Moines Register poll is taken by Ann Selzer. She’s known as one of the best in the business and, certainly, the authority when it comes to polling in Iowa,” he said.
“Let me show you the numbers. Republican side for the Iowa caucuses, we now have Donald Trump leading with an outright majority in Iowa, 51%. Ron DeSantis a distant second at 19%. Nikki Haley at 16%. Ramaswamy and Christie at 4,” Kornacki added.
“We last polled Iowa in October, also with the Des Moines Register. Since then, look at this, Donald Trump’s lead, he’s added eight points to his total. DeSantis up a couple. Haley, who had been moving flat, I think it’s significant because, in the month leading up to this poll, you had Ron DeSantis pick up the endorsement of the governor of Iowa, the endorsement of a key evangelical leader in Iowa,” he continued. He got a lot of press attention for completing a 99-county tour of Iowa. Had a Fox News debate against Gavin Newsom in front of millions of Republican-leaning voters, and was part of that fourth Republican debate last week that Donald Trump wasn’t in,” the reporter said.
“So for all of those things we thought might be giving DeSantis a boost over the last month, it is Trump, despite not participating in the debates again, it’s Trump who has made the big gains, Trump who has moved to 51% in the Iowa poll.
“Just a couple of other numbers we can show you behind this. These are evangelical numbers in Iowa. Remember, Donald Trump finished third with this group in 2016 when he ran in Iowa and lost. Now, he leads overwhelmingly, the exact same number as what he gets overall. Evangelicals could make up 2 out of every 3 caucus-goers in Iowa. Where Trump turns it on, though, is first-time caucus-goers, this tends to be a younger group overall. 63% of folks say for the first time they’re going to a caucus, are rallying behind Donald Trump,” he said.
“These are independents. Independents are a small share of the Iowa electorate. But I think it gets to the basic problem Nikki Haley has. Look how much better Nikki Haley does among independents. It’s true in Iowa. It’s true in New Hampshire. It’s true in every poll we have seen. But in Iowa, and in most of these Republican primary and caucus states (the big exception being New Hampshire), Independents are going to be outnumbered significantly by core Republicans. Haley has yet to show she can make the inroads she needs to make with core Republicans. That is to say, republicans who like Donald Trump. She has yet to show she can make those inroads to be competitive,” the analyst noted further.
“Also, in terms of enthusiasm, we ask folks, are you very, extremely enthusiastic about your choice? Trump 2 to 1, 3 to 1 advantage over his rivals. We asked folks is your mind made up? 70% of Trump voters in Iowa say their minds are made up, again, more than double that of any of his rivals,” Kornacki said, citing the data.
“And we asked this, a lot of words, this is about electability and Republicans’ perception of it here. We talked so much in 2023 about Donald Trump’s trials, we will continue to talk about it in 2024. We asked folks, can Donald Trump win the election regardless of his legal challenges, now, nearly 3 out of 4 Republicans in Iowa say yes. Last month, that number wasn’t even 2 out of 3. Big jump there for Trump,” he said.
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