Florida Republicans received another encouraging snapshot of the state’s Senate contest Wednesday after an election analyst published figures showing a Republican advantage among classified early and mail ballot returns.
The race pits Republican incumbent Ashley Moody against Democratic Socialist state Representative Angie Nixon, with new polling showing Moody ahead as both campaigns make their final arguments before November 3.
In addition, early voting figures in the race show a better-than-average early turnout among Republicans.
The latest RealClearPolling average, covering surveys conducted between September 8 and October 7, places Moody at 49.3% and Nixon at 42.3%, giving the Republican a seven-percentage-point advantage.
An NBC 6/Telemundo survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy found Moody leading Nixon 50% to 40%.
A separate Stetson University survey conducted September 14–21 showed Moody ahead 51% to 40%.
Other recent surveys have reported smaller differences, including a YouGov poll showing Moody at 49% and Nixon at 44%.
Moody entered the Senate in January 2025 after Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed her to replace former Sen. Marco Rubio, who left the chamber to become President Donald Trump’s secretary of state.
Previously Florida’s attorney general, Moody built her political profile around law enforcement, consumer protection, opposition to illegal immigration and legal challenges to policies advanced by Democratic administrations.
Her campaign emphasizes public safety, border enforcement, economic growth and support for conservative priorities, building on her statewide record. She’s been endorsed by President Donald Trump as well.
Nixon represents a Jacksonville area district in the Florida House and secured the Democratic nomination in August after defeating Alexander Vindman, a former U.S. Army officer.
FLORIDA – 10.14.26
🗳️ 663,784 votes in
🔵 Firewall of 43,531
🥇Race is leaning Republican https://t.co/V7DZ13xvVS
— E_DataGuy (@E_DataGuy) October 14, 2026
While she’s busy campaigning with radical gun grabber David Hogg, Angie Nixon is projected to lose by around a massive 970,000 votes
This embarrassing performance would be the third worst a democrat has EVER out up in the history of United States senate elections in Florida! https://t.co/UjHp59oPxX
— 1611 Populist (@KJVPopulist) October 8, 2026
Nixon identifies as a democratic socialist and has advocated universal healthcare, expanded childcare assistance and measures intended to make housing more affordable, contrasting with Moody.
Her association with the Democratic Socialists of America has drawn criticism from Republicans, while Nixon has argued that opponents are emphasizing the label instead of debating her proposals.
“If it wasn’t DSA, they would be attacking me on something,” Nixon told CBS News in September while responding to questions about the organization and her political identity.
She added that “this is not about three letters,” describing the campaign as a debate over economic pressures confronting Florida families rather than a dispute over organizational membership.
Nixon has also attracted support from prominent left-wing figures, including Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, whose political committee contributed $250,000 to her campaign, according to recent reporting.
Democratic Senator Chris Murphy and Sanders have planned campaign appearances with Nixon, highlighting national interest in her candidacy.
A Stetson University survey released October 14 measured Moody at 52 percent and Nixon at 41 percent among modeled likely voters, an eleven-point advantage for the incumbent.
The survey interviewed 826 Florida adults from October 1 through October 9, including 716 registered voters, and its election results were based on a likely voter model.
A separate St Pete Polls survey conducted October 5 through October 7 reported a considerably narrower contest, with Moody at approximately 47 percent and Nixon at 45 percent.
That two-point gap fell within the survey’s margin of error, illustrating how wildly different polling during this and recent previous election cycles has been.
An October poll from MDW Communications, conducted among 2,351 likely voters, measured Moody at 47.6 percent and Nixon at 42.4 percent, also favoring Moody.
Taken together, those surveys show a range of Republican advantages rather than a single definitive margin, with voter turnout and undecided residents remaining important uncertainties.
Florida, once a true battleground state, has shifted toward Republicans in recent elections.
Independent candidate Neil Gillespie has also appeared in some surveys, adding another choice for voters and complicating polling comparisons.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
