The mainstream media has claimed that Republicans have been trailing Democrats in generic congressional ballots for months, although polling margins have varied widely.
But several GOP leaders have remained confident that the party will still prevail in November, despite some unpopular policies, such as the Iran war, pursued by President Donald Trump.
And now, one of the most accurate pollsters over the past several election cycles says he believes Republicans can close current polling gaps before the Nov. 3 elections.
In a podcast hosted by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, pollster John McLaughlin provided a much better outlook for Republicans than other pollsters have provided.
“The polls are moving. Since the start of September, the generic ballot has shifted several points toward the Democrats, and prediction markets now give Democrats roughly a 90% chance of winning the House,” Gingrich said to begin the segment.
“But my new America’s New Majority Project survey tells a more complicated story. The ballot has barely moved since spring, and a lot of Republican voters are still up for grabs. In a midterm, when only about half of registered voters cast their votes, the winner is whoever motivates turnout,” he added.
Gingrich then turned to Doug Sosnik, a Democratic strategist and former adviser to then-President Bill Clinton, who gave his take about why polling appears to have shifted toward Democrats.
“Every election cycle has a key moment, an inflection point that sets the stage for the final results,” he began.
“In this election, history tells us this was never supposed to be a great cycle for Republicans. But I think the key inflection point was the decision at the end of February to go into Iran,” Sosnik said.
“By the end of August, the movement away from peace and the increase in prices became a catalytic event. In early September, the slow, steady decline of Republican candidates reached a new level,” he added.
Gingrich then turned to McLaughlin, noting his numbers told a “slightly different” story.
“It’s still a very competitive election,” he began. “Where I disagree with Doug is not so much the decision to go into Iran, because Trump’s base was solidly behind him in stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
“I think the inflection point was the ceasefire, when they pulled back without getting what they wanted from the Iranians,” he continued.
“But the real point of the midterms is that you’re supposed to have a debate between yourself and the other party. Republicans have not played offense in this election,” McLaughlin added.
He then talked about what has primarily given Republicans a distinct advantage.
“In our latest national poll of 8,000 likely voters, Republicans were down five points on the generic ballot. But when we asked whether voters would support a free-market capitalist Republican against a big-government socialist Democrat, Republicans led 45% to 41%,” said McLaughlin.
However, he added, “That advantage has narrowed. The opposition to Trump is coming together, and Republicans aren’t making enough inroads among independents.”
Still, he noted: “My latest polling still has Republicans down five points on the generic ballot. That’s close enough that you can close the gap in four weeks.”
Sosnik then countered. “I agree that Trump’s base has stuck with him and that most of the candidates he endorsed won their Republican primaries,” he said.
“But that’s the problem. The people sticking with Trump are largely his hardcore base,” the Democratic strategist said.
Sosnik also said he believes Democrats have a much better chance of winning back the House than the Senate.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
