OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
The more often former President Donald Trump gets indicted, the more it is affecting his polling numbers.
According to the shocking results of a just-released poll, it appears as though the 2024 GOP primary is all but over.
In a previous CBS News/YouGov poll that was published in June, Trump held a big 38-point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Now, nearly two months later and after a flurry of charges against the former president, he has increased his lead over his next-closest rival by another 8 points.
Republican poll respondents were asked, “Of the candidates you are considering, or might consider, if the 2024 Republican primary or caucus in your state were held today, which ONE of those candidates would you vote for?”
Sixty-two percent said they would support Trump, with DeSantis falling to just 16 percent. No other candidate received even half of that, though Vivek Ramaswamy was in third place with 7 percent.
Meanwhile, a poll earlier this month found that Trump and President Joe Biden are tied in a hypothetical presidential rematch.
Both Biden and Trump would get 43 percent of the vote overall if the 2024 presidential election were held today. Nevertheless, voters continue to have high levels of disapproval for both men, with 54 percent disapproving of Biden and 55 percent of voters disapproving of Trump, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.
The national poll was released less than six months before the first primary and roughly 15 months before the election on November 5, 2024. Biden and Trump are still in the lead for their respective party’s presidential nominations.
The survey found that Trump received 54 percent of the support from GOP primary voters, while DeSantis came in second with just 17 percent of the vote.
Trump not only maintains significant influence within the Republican Party but, according to a recent report, he is also dominating the early primary race in a manner unparalleled in modern history.
Polling experts who spoke to The Daily Caller claimed that Trump’s commanding lead in most surveys is so overwhelming that it must be disheartening for the rest of the GOP contenders.
The outlet noted that the current Republican primary cycle is unlike any other, with a former president leading the race, holding a substantial advantage in the polls, and facing competition from his former vice president. Additionally, Trump carries the weight of two federal indictments.
Polling analysts interviewed by the DC emphasized the significant contrast between this current GOP primary season and previous cycles, arguing that it is challenging to draw direct comparisons in recent memory.
“This GOP primary is truly unprecedented because Trump is not technically an incumbent, but Republican voters seem to be treating him as at least a quasi-incumbent,” Kyle Kondik, a polling analyst and managing editor for the nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told the outlet.
Kondik noted further that Trump’s legal challenges have also revealed a “unique” aspect to the current primary season. His indictments could eventually generate “fatigue” within GOP voting ranks resulting in polling declines, but the expert added that he doesn’t see that happening currently.
Jon McHenry, a vice president at North Star Opinion Research and a GOP polling analyst, underscored the extraordinary nature of the Republican primary by emphasizing that Trump’s impact on reshaping the party, coupled with his indictment by the Manhattan district attorney, has played a substantial role in the former president’s impressive standing in the polls.
“This really is a unique cycle, at least since we’ve used primaries and caucuses as the primary vehicle to nominate our presidential candidates. In that time, we haven’t had an incumbent president lose re-election and run again, much less lead in the polls,” McHenry told the outlet.
“President Trump’s lead right now is in part a testament to the extent to which he reshaped the party from a conservative party to a populist party,” he told the Daily Caller.
