There could be a major upset brewing in blue state Oregon’s race for governor.
The remains extremely competitive with less than a month before Election Day, as a new poll shows incumbent Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek holding a narrow advantage over Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan in their 2022 rematch.
The survey, conducted for The Oregonian/OregonLive, found Kotek receiving support from 46% of likely voters compared with 44% for Drazan.
Another 6% supported a different candidate, while 4% remained undecided.
Kotek’s two-point advantage falls within the survey’s margin of error, meaning the poll does not establish which candidate is ahead among the broader electorate.
The survey of 549 likely Oregon voters was conducted Sept. 29 through Oct. 4 by DHM Research and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
The result represents a slight improvement for Kotek compared with some earlier surveys.
A DHM Research poll conducted in August showed Drazan receiving 44% support compared with 41% for Kotek, while 11% of voters remained undecided.
The movement between the two surveys suggests more voters have settled on a candidate as Election Day approaches, although differences within the polls’ margins of error should be interpreted cautiously.
Kotek’s support has also become more consolidated among Democrats.
The latest survey found 92% of Democratic respondents supporting the governor, compared with 89% of Republicans backing Drazan.
Independent and unaffiliated voters were more closely divided.
Those voters could be particularly important in Oregon, where unaffiliated voters make up a substantial portion of the electorate.
The election is a rematch of Oregon’s unusually competitive 2022 gubernatorial contest.
Kotek defeated Drazan four years ago with approximately 47% of the vote compared with Drazan’s 43.5%.
Independent candidate Betsy Johnson captured nearly 9% and complicated the race by drawing voters who otherwise might have supported one of the major-party candidates.
Kotek’s victory extended a Democratic winning streak in Oregon gubernatorial elections dating to 1986.
No Republican has been elected governor of the state since Victor Atiyeh won reelection in 1982.
Drazan is attempting to end that streak while arguing that Oregon needs a change in leadership on homelessness, crime, education and the cost of living.
Kotek has defended her administration’s record while acknowledging persistent problems involving housing affordability, behavioral health and homelessness.
Housing has emerged as one of the defining issues of Kotek’s first term.
The governor declared a homelessness emergency shortly after taking office in 2023 and established ambitious housing-production goals.
Her administration has pushed lawmakers to increase construction, expand shelter capacity and provide additional resources to communities confronting homelessness.
Kotek has argued that Oregon’s housing shortage developed over decades and requires sustained state investment.
Drazan has criticized the results, arguing that Oregon residents continue to face high housing costs and visible homelessness despite increased government spending with zero positive results.
The Republican has emphasized reducing regulations, accelerating housing construction and holding state agencies more accountable.
The candidates have also clashed over taxes and the broader cost of living.
Drazan has sought to portray Kotek as part of a Democratic political establishment that has controlled Oregon government for years.
Kotek has countered that her administration has pursued bipartisan solutions and warned that Drazan would reverse policies involving abortion rights, labor protections and environmental regulation.
Kotek and Drazan have increasingly sharpened their differences during televised debates.
Their second debate this week featured disagreements over public safety, homelessness, education, taxes and President Donald Trump’s administration.
Drazan argued that Oregon needs new leadership after decades of Democratic control.
Kotek emphasized her experience and said her administration has made progress on housing and behavioral health while maintaining protections she argues are important to Oregon voters.
The new poll provides only a snapshot of voter sentiment several weeks before ballots are fully counted.
Oregon conducts elections primarily by mail, meaning voting patterns differ considerably from states where most ballots are cast at polling locations on Election Day.
With Kotek and Drazan separated by only two percentage points in the latest survey — well inside its margin of error — the available polling shows a closely divided electorate rather than a definitive leader heading into the final weeks of the campaign.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
