OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Former President Donald Trump has taken the lead in two of the three so-called “Blue Wall” states that Vice President Kamala Harris needs to win November’s presidential race.
Quinnipiac University’s most recent poll shows Trump leading in Michigan 50 to 47 percent and Wisconsin 48 to 46 percent. He has closed the difference in Pennsylvania with Harris, who leads the Keystone State 49 to 46 percent.
Harris was winning the race in Michigan last month, 50 to 45 percent; in Wisconsin, 48 to 47 percent.
Harris had also been ahead in Pennsylvania, with 51 to 45 percent, but Trump has halved that gap in Quinnipiac’s survey.
📊 Rust Belt polling by Quinnipiac
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 50% (+3)
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
🟨 West: 1%Last poll (9/16) – 🔵 Harris +5
——
WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump: 48% (+2)
🟦 Harris: 46%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟪 Oliver: 1%Last poll – 🔵 Harris +1
——
PENNSYLVANIA
🟦 Harris: 49% (+3)
🟥… pic.twitter.com/lQHhO2taPt— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 9, 2024
According to the Real Clear Polling average, which is based on surveys conducted as recently as last month, Trump has a slight lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Harris holds a narrow victory in Wisconsin.
While Harris does best when polled on abortion policy, Trump does best on immigration, the economy, and the Middle East conflict, according to Blue Wall voters.
Polling among probable voters was carried out by Quinnipiac from October 3rd to the 7th.
The margin of error for the sample was +/- 2.6 percentage points for 1,412 Pennsylvania voters, +/- 3.1 percentage points for 1,007 Michigan voters, and +/- 3.0 percentage points for 1,073 Wisconsin voters.
Quinnipiac just dropped a bomb on the Presidential polling world:
Michigan
🔴 Trump: 50%
🔵 Harris: 47%Wisconsin
🔴 Trump: 48%
🔵 Harris: 46%Pennsylvania
🔴 Trump: 46%
🔵 Harris: 49%What are your thoughts?
— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) October 9, 2024
The polls show that Trump is faring much better against Harris than he did with Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate for president in 2016.
Clinton had a 3.4% lead in Michigan according to the Real Clear Politics average of surveys, but Trump ultimately won the state by a narrow margin of 0.3%.
Clinton was up in Wisconsin by 6.5% in the polls, yet she lost the state to Trump by 0.7%.
Even though the Democrat’s lead was a weaker 1.9 percent in Pennsylvania, Trump still managed to win by a narrow 0.7% margin.
Real Clear Polling averages show that outside of the Blue Wall, the Republican nominee has a lead in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, all of which are close races, but Harris has the upper hand in Nevada.
BREAKING: A new Quinnipiac poll out of Michigan has Trump +3
🔴Trump 50% (+3)
🔵Harris 47%The internals we’ve been hearing about sending shock waves across Democrat circles are finally reflected in public polls.
Let’s go!!
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) October 9, 2024
Polling has been trending in the wrong direction for Harris lately.
Trump has managed to overtake Harris in a new national survey after a seven-point swing in his favor.
The poll, taken by ActiVote between October 3 and October 8, shows Trump with a 1.2 percent lead over Harris, garnering 50.6 percent of the vote compared to her 49.4 percent.
This marks a reversal of fortunes for Trump, who was trailing Harris by 5.4 points—47.3 percent to her 52.7 percent—in a poll conducted by ActiVote between September 11 and September 17.
The former president has seen a 6.6-point increase in his support in just three weeks.
Both polls surveyed 1,000 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, Newsweek reported.
This is the first time Trump has led a national poll since September 22, when a Quinnipiac University survey showed him 1 point ahead at 48 percent, compared to Harris’s 47 percent when including third-party candidates.
In a head-to-head matchup, that poll indicated a tie, with both candidates receiving 48 percent. The poll surveyed 1,728 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.
