OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
In the last few elections, the “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have made it easy for Democrats to win the White House.
They are worried that the vice president won’t be able to win all three states with only 14 days to go until the election on November 5. There is also worry on Harris’s side that North Carolina has “slipped away.”
“Recent discussions have centered on the possibility of an anomaly happening this year with just part of the blue wall breaking its way. The conversations have focused on whether Michigan or Wisconsin “fall” to former President Donald Trump while the two other states go blue, according to three sources with knowledge of the campaign’s strategy,” NBC News reported.
“Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris secures Pennsylvania — where both Harris and Trump have spent the most time and resources — she would not reach the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House without winning another battleground state or possibly two,” the outlet added.
“There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,” said a senior Harris campaign official, who stressed that the bigger concern is over Michigan.
Two other campaign strategists — who, like others in this piece, were granted anonymity to talk freely — expressed great concern about Michigan. Those people continue to believe that all states are near and that there are alternate paths to victory.
“Of all of the seven [states], that one seems to be a little bit slipping away,” the Harris campaign official said of North Carolina.
Nate Silver’s most recent update to his election model showed a big change in the 2024 presidential race. The model especially showed how support for former President Donald Trump was growing faster than support for Vice President Kamala Harris.
At the moment, Harris has a small lead with 50.1%, which is down 4.8%, while Trump has 49.7%, which is up 4.8%.
These are some of the most important split states: the Midwest and the Sun Belt. They are now moving toward Trump. Trump also has a big lead in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. But Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are still not far away.
Silver, who did a lot of work for polls in 2016 and 2020, said, “We’re just not seeing as many Harris +3 numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as we did right after the debate.”
The move may have been caused by Harris’s support settling after the debate. Her initial gains did not last, and she is now behind.
CNN’s senior data analyst Harry Enten said that the presidential race is changing quickly and not in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris, who is running as a Democrat.
He talked with CNN host Kate Bolduan on Friday and said that the Democrat’s campaign had stopped moving forward. He also said that she was still more popular than the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, but that he didn’t think that would be enough to get her elected president.