OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Vice President Kamala Harris looked shocked when she discovered a microphone nearby recording her talk with Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer after a rally.
When Harris and Whitmer went to the Trak Houz Bar & Grill in Kalamazoo for a drink, a lot of press and other people seemed to be there. Around the bar, Harris talked to several people before she and Whitmer sat down.
“Can I treat you to a beer made right here in Kamala-zoo?” Whitmer, Harris’ campaign co-chair, asked the candidate, emphasizing the vice president’s first name in the city.
The two then faced the bar and started to speak in lower tones as the cameras continued to roll.
“Great rally,” Whitmer said.
Harris agreed: “I thought it was really great.”
“You know what I’ve taken to is … and just shouting it out, like, ‘first-time voters’ and ‘Gen Z,’” the vice president recounted.
Whitmer seemed to agree that was a good way to get people interested. Harris thanked the governor for helping her run for office.
“I’ve been bugging your whole team,” Whitmer acknowledged. “I’m like we’ve got to do this and this and this.”
“We need to move ground among men. Oh, we have microphones in here just listening to everything,” Harris stated, noticing the cameras were rolling behind them.
“I didn’t realize that. OK, well, now you tell us. We just told all the family secrets, s***,” the vice president said.
WATCH:
Kamala and Gretchen Whitmer busted on a hot mic at a cringe bar scene:
KAMALA: “We need to move ground among men”
Then realizes they are likely being recorded…
KAMALA: “Oh we have microphones in here just listening to everything … sh*t” pic.twitter.com/H6uAdsFuec
— Martin Walsh (@MWalshUS) October 29, 2024
Nate Silver’s most recent prediction is that former President Donald Trump could win all of the important split states in the 2024 election.
Silver’s research shows that Trump has a 24.4% chance of winning all seven swing states in November. This is the most likely outcome. The forecast also says that Harris has a 15.6% chance of winning all the battleground states.
It also shows that Harris would win the race if she won all the swing states except Arizona and Georgia, where Trump is currently ahead.
His model, on the other hand, says that this is only 1.7% likely to happen. On the other hand, it’s 3.4% likely that Harris will win Georgia but not Arizona, and 2.9% likely that the Democrats will win Arizona but not Georgia.
The model shows that there is a 4.6% chance that the Republicans will win every swing state except Nevada, where Harris is currently ahead by a very small amount. In this case, Trump would win the election because the vice president would get 232 electoral college votes.
Silver’s overall prediction shows that Harris is most likely to win when Democrats win between three and five of the key states.
That’s how many electoral college votes the vice president would need to win if she only won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. That’s an 86.2 percent chance of winning overall.
Polls show that Trump is ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
A tracker from FiveThirtyEight says the former president is ahead by 0.2 points in Pennsylvania, but a tracker from Silver says the state is tied.
The prediction from Silver says that Harris has a 0.6% chance of winning the race if she only wins Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. If she gets Pennsylvania, her chances go up to 98.9 percent. Silver’s model, on the other hand, says that this unlikely event is only 2.9% likely to happen.
In the last two weeks, expectations for the electoral college have changed to show that Trump is more likely to win than Harris. As an example, Silver currently thinks that Trump has a 53.1% chance of getting the Electoral College vote, while Harris only thinks that Trump has a 46.6% chance.
FiveThirtyEight’s prediction has also changed in Trump’s favor. It now says that Trump has a 51% chance of winning the election, while Harris only has a 49% chance.
At the same time, RealClearPolitics predicts that Trump will win all four swing states, giving him 312 Electoral College votes to Harris’s 227.
Famed polling guru Nate Silver’s ‘gut says Donald Trump’ will win 2024 presidential election pic.twitter.com/ZjofA0EAVM
— Martin Walsh (@MWalshUS) October 24, 2024