OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
The “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have provided the road to the White House for the last few elections.
However, with only 14 days until the November 5 election, there are fears within Kamala Harris’ team about the vice president’s ability to win all three states. Harris’s team also worries that North Carolina has “slipped away.”
“Recent discussions have centered on the possibility of an anomaly this year with just part of the blue wall breaking its way. The conversations have focused on whether Michigan or Wisconsin “fall” to former President Donald Trump while the two other states go blue, according to three sources with knowledge of the campaign’s strategy,” NBC News reported.
“Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris secures Pennsylvania — where both Harris and Trump have spent the most time and resources — she would not reach the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House without winning another battleground state or possibly two,” the outlet added.
“There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,” said a senior Harris campaign official, who stressed that the bigger concern is over Michigan.
Two other campaign strategists—who, like others in this piece, were granted anonymity to talk freely—expressed great concern about Michigan. They continue to believe that all states are near and that there are alternate paths to victory.
NBC News added: “But also potentially troubling for Democrats: What Harris’ campaign had thought was one of its best insurance possibilities may also be in peril. Just a few weeks ago, several Harris advisers pointed to the combination of electoral votes from North Carolina and Nevada as a strong alternative path for Harris should Trump win Pennsylvania and claim its 19 electoral votes. While North Carolina is still in the campaign’s sights and Democrats maintain strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less bullish about victory, four people with knowledge of the dynamics said.”
“Of all of the seven [states], that one seems to be a little bit slipping away,” the Harris campaign official said of North Carolina.
According to these sources, Hurricane Helene’s devastation and the widespread information that followed could work against Harris in North Carolina.
One of the sources also mentioned a less competitive race for governor as a possible factor.
A series of scandals derailed Republican nominee Mark Robinson’s campaign, leaving him significantly behind Democrat Josh Stein in polls; these developments have resulted in less local involvement and energy on the ground, according to that person.
Nate Silver’s most recent update to his election model showed a big change in the 2024 presidential race. The model especially showed how support for former President Donald Trump was growing faster than support for Vice President Kamala Harris.
At the moment, Harris has a small lead with 50.1%, which is down 4.8%, while Trump has 49.7%, which is up 4.8%.
Some of the most important swing states, like the Midwest and Sun Belt, are now moving toward Trump. Trump also has a big lead in places like Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. However, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are still close.
Silver, a top pollster from the 2016 and 2020 races, said: “We’re just not seeing as many Harris +3 type numbers in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as we did immediately after the debate.”
The move has been linked to Harris’s post-debate support stabilizing, as initial gains did not last and she is now trailing.
Harry Enten, the senior data analyst for CNN, said that the momentum of the presidential election is changing swiftly and not in favor of Democrat presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris.
He joined CNN anchor Kate Bolduan on Friday, where he said that the Democrat’s momentum had stalled, and while she remains more popular than the Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump, he believes that will not be enough to give her the presidency.
He explained that in 2016, the Democrat nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, was more popular than him, and he won.
In the 2020 election, Joe Biden was more popular and won only by a slim margin.
