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Biden’s ‘Job Growth’ Numbers Are Not What They Appear: Analysis

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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.


President Joe Biden has gotten impressive job growth numbers during his presidency, particularly as the election approaches, but there is an issue.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has continuously had to “adjust” the numbers because they were overinflated, Issues And Insights reported.

“Last month, for example, BLS said that the economy created 272,000 jobs, which the media branded as ‘whopping,’ ‘robust,’ ‘vigorous,’ and a ‘blowout.’ Economists had expected 190,000 new jobs in May,” the report said.

“But on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics admitted that it had overestimated job gains in May by 20%, with the new figure just barely above economists’ expectations. The change barely got a mention in the press,” it said.

In April the bureau estimated job growth to be 175,000 but had to adjust it by close to 38 percent to 108,000.

In January, the agency reported that 353,000 new jobs were created, but later, it had to cut that number by close to 100,000, and February’s number has been cut by nearly 40,000.

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This year close to a quarter of a million “new jobs” have vanished and this is not something new during Biden’s presidency.

“Why? One big reason is the statistical models the BLS uses to fill in gaps in its survey of businesses have been misfiring. Here’s how Bloomberg explains it,” Issues And Insights said in its report:

A chunk of the potential overestimation of payrolls stems from adjustments the agency makes to the monthly employment report to account for the net amount of businesses opening and going under, Wong and Knapp say. Because the BLS only surveys existing establishments, it uses a so-called birth-death model to estimate those flows.

‘The labor market saw a turning point sometime in the second half of 2023,’ Wong said. ‘Business closures surged, while new business formations slowed sharply.’

“As a result, the BLS overestimated job growth by about 60,000 each month last year,” the report said.

But even the “jobs created” paints a picture that is not as much a cause for celebration as the White House would want you to believe.

Many of the new jobs are part-time or are 2nd and third jobs people have taken to make ends meet because of “Bidenomics.”

“BLS data show that there are 319,000 more adults working multiple jobs today than there were a year ago. Multiple job-holders now account for 5.2% of those employed, up from 4.4% when Biden took office,” the report said.

“All of which helps to explain why, when 1.3 million jobs were supposedly created this year, the number of unemployed climbed by almost 700,000 and the unemployment rate went from 3.7% to 4.1%,” it said.

“And this is to say nothing of the fact that most of the jobs created went to foreign-born, not native Americans, and real wages are lower today than they were when Biden took office,” it said.

CNN noted in a report in March that behind these positive economic indicators, “a frustrating reality persists: Life is far too expensive for far too many.”

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The country is grappling with a long-standing cost of living dilemma, spanning from historically unaffordable housing markets and budget-straining daycare expenses to elevated car prices, much of that driven by sky-high interest and mortgage rates.

In short, “Bidnenomics” — the nickname the White House has given to Biden’s economic policies — isn’t working for most Americans.

“Parents of young children are making difficult choices to afford child care — or they’re opting to evade it by dropping out of the workforce altogether,” CNN said. “Parents are also struggling to buy bigger cars to haul around their growing families while simultaneously socking away some money in college savings plans.

“For too many, the American Dream feels like an illusion,” the outlet noted further.

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