OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
The number of new jobs in the U.S. slowed down in October, which was far fewer than experts had expected.
On Friday, the Labor Department said that businesses added only 12,000 jobs in October, which is a lot less than the 113,000 jobs that LSEG economists thought would be added.
The rate of unemployment was 4.1%, which was what was expected. The unemployment rate stayed the same. Both of the previous two months’ job gains were lowered. In August, job creation decreased by 81,000, from a gain of 159,000 to 78,000, and in September, it decreased by 31,000, from a gain of 254,000 to 223,000.
In October, private sector payrolls fell by 28,000, even though LSEG experts thought they would go up by 90,000.
There were also 46,000 jobs were lost in the manufacturing sector. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said this was mostly because of strikes in the transportation equipment manufacturing sector. Since the beginning of September, about 33,000 Boeing mechanics who are part of a union have been on strike.
There were 8,000 new jobs in the the building, which is less than the average of 20,000 jobs added each month over the last 12 months.
Healthcare added 52,000 jobs in October, which is close to the average of 58,000 jobs added each month over the last year.
In October, the government added 40,000 jobs, which is about the same as the 43,000 jobs it has added each month on average over the past year.
BLS said that Hurricane Helene hit land in the southeast before the time period used for its job surveys and Hurricane Milton hit the same area during the time period of the report.
The government said that the hurricanes did not change anything about the October report because “it is likely that payroll employment estimates in some industries were affected by the hurricanes.
However, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the over-the-month change in national employment, hours, or earnings estimates because the establishment survey is not designed to isolate effects from extreme weather events.”
The rate of people in the workforce was 62.6% in October, and it hasn’t changed much in the past year.
In October, the average hourly wage for all private nonfarm workers went up by 13 cents, or 0.4%, to $35.46. In the past 12 months, hourly wages have gone up by 4% on average.
“This report will most likely show a significant but temporary loss of jobs from the two recent hurricanes and the strike at Boeing,” Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said in a speech last month.
Axios reported: “Still it is a key jobs report, if only for the timing of its release. It comes just days before the presidential election, when voters have remained relatively sour on the economy despite its ongoing resilience. It also comes before Fed’s two-day policy meeting that ends next Thursday, where officials are expected to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point. There is uncertainty about how much lower interest rates will go in the months ahead.”
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten pointed to several factors during a network segment on Wednesday indicating that former President Donald Trump is very likely to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump and Harris are currently in a tight race, with the former president holding a narrow lead over the vice president in six of the top seven battleground states, according to RealClearPolitics averages.
But on “CNN News Central,” Enten pointed out that voter dissatisfaction with the country’s direction, President Joe Biden’s unpopularity, and high Republican registration numbers are all indicators that favor a Trump victory.
“Just 28% of Americans, voters, think the country is going in the right direction, is on the right track. And I want to put that into a historical perspective for you. Okay, what’s the average percentage of the public that thinks that the country is on the right track when the incumbent party loses? It’s 25%,” Enten said.
“That 25% looks an awful bit like that 28% up there. It doesn’t look anything, anything like this 42% [average when the incumbent party won] doesn’t look anything like this 28%. So, the bottom line is very few Americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point. It tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses than with [when] it wins,” he continued.
Enten continued by pointing out that Biden’s low approval rating may historically indicate a loss for Harris because presidents with net unfavorable approval ratings have not had candidates from their own party succeed them.
“In fact, I went back through history, there isn’t a single time in which 28% of the American public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent party actually won,” Enten noted further. “They always lose when just 28% of the country believes that the country is on the right track.”
“Now, we don’t know if Kamala Harris is going to succeed Joe Biden, but we know back in 2008, George W. Bush’s approval rating was down in the 20’s. Did a Republican succeed George W. Bush? No. How ’bout in 1968? Lyndon Baines Johnson, his net approval rating was negative. Did a Democrat succeed Lyndon Baines Johnson? No,” the data reporter said. “How ’bout in ’52 Harry S. Truman, his approval rating was in the 20’s, if not the upper teens.”
“Did a Democrat succeed Harry S. Truman in ’52? My memory, no … Dwight Eisenhower, a Republican, succeeded Harry S. Truman,” he continued. “So the bottom line is for Kamala Harris to win, she’d have to break history, be a Democrat to succeed Joe Biden when Biden’s approval rating is way underwater at this point.” Furthermore, Enten stated that Republicans have been making gains against Democrats in party registration within the battleground states, specifically highlighting Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
“So Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate, the Democratic number versus the Republican number has shrunk. And so the bottom line is if Republicans win, come next week, Donald Trump wins comes next week, the signs all along will have been obvious,” he said. “We would look at the right direction being very low, Joe Biden’s approval rating being very low and Republicans really registering numbers. You can’t say you weren’t warned.”
Enten concluded: “So the bottom line is for Kamala Harris to win. She’d have to break history.”
