OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
In Wisconsin, one of the most important swing states in the coming election, a new study from Emerson College and The Hill has shocking results that could be bad for Democrats. The most recent results are in and Vice President Kamala Harris does not do well.
This study shows that former President Donald Trump has just a little more than half of the vote, with 50 percent compared to Harris’s 49 percent. Some might not think a 1% difference is a big deal, but Democrats are worried about the trend.
In the same poll taken before the Democratic National Convention (DNC), Harris was ahead of Trump by 1 percent. That’s a 2 percent drop for her, which turns the state in Trump’s favor. In Wisconsin, where races are very close, even the smallest change can have huge effects.
The polling past of Emerson College makes the numbers even scarier. In 2020, their last poll put Joe Biden well ahead, with an 8 percent lead. Real results, on the other hand, showed a much closer race.
The poll gave Biden an astonishing 7.4 percent lead. If the current poll follows the same trend, the Democrats might get a big surprise on election day.
Wisconsin is known for having very close races, and this change could be the deciding factor. If Harris’s team wants to win in a state that has been very important in recent elections, they will need to act quickly to stop this downward trend.
A series of new polls indicate that the ‘surge’ Harris received after President Joe Biden dropped his re-election bid last month is ending.
According to a recent poll by the Napolitan Institute, Trump is once again leading, similar to the lead he held over Biden before the Democrats redirected their support to Harris.
“In the race for the White House, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 46% to 45%. When leaners are included, the Napolitan News survey of 3,000 Likely Voters shows Trump ahead 49% to 47%. A week ago, the candidates were tied at 49% among Likely Voters,” the polling organization noted in a report on its findings.
“These numbers suggest that the initial Harris bounce is over. However, the core dynamics of the race remain unchanged. Love him or hate him, voters know what they think of Donald Trump. At this point, Kamala Harris remains largely unknown. That means events like the upcoming Democratic convention and presidential debates could have a bigger impact than usual.”
The organization stated that the presidential race remains too close to call at this stage. However, analysts have noted that in the past two elections, Trump has performed significantly better than his polling numbers suggested.
“Trump voters are slightly more likely to vote than Harris supporters. So, the former president does a bit better with a lower turnout. What’s especially amazing about this close race is that it’s quite plausible to envision either party winning a trifecta: control of the Presidency, the Senate, and the House. The most important race to determine Senate control is in Montana. The latest Napolitan News survey there shows Democrat Jon Tester with a narrow lead but the state’s political gravity is likely to boost Republican Tim Sheehy.
A report by Just the News cited the new polling data to explain that voters are “catapulting Trump to lead and ending Harris surge.”
The report noted Harris was leading Trump 44% to 43% in the same survey just a week ago, and held a five-point lead at the beginning of the month.
“These numbers suggest that the initial Harris bounce is over,” pollster Scott Rasmussen of the Napolitan Institute told Just the News.
In a recent national head-to-head survey by Rasmussen Reports, Trump is leading Harris by three percentage points.
“Trump came out ahead 49% to 46%. That amounts to a slight gain for Harris, who was lagging behind Trump 45% to 49% in Rasmussen’s poll last week. When third-party hopefuls were added to the mix, Trump came out on top again with 47% to Harris’ 45%, followed by independent contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 4%, and all others at 1% or less, per Rasmussen,” the New York Post reported.
“Rasmussen’s findings are an outlier among recent national polling. The conservative-leaning firm has often been at odds with other top pollsters. In 2016, it was among the closest firms to the final result. Harris is averaging a two-point lead over Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of a national five-way race. In a two-way race, her lead slips to 1.5 percentage points,” the Post added.
The race for battleground state polling has also become much more competitive, with several firms obtaining varying results in the major races.
