OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Democrats may suffer from the startling findings of a new study from Emerson College and The Hill in Wisconsin, one of the key swing states in the upcoming election. Vice President Kamala Harris does not fare well in the most recent findings.
As per this study, Harris has received 49% of the vote, while former President Donald Trump has slightly more than half, at 50%. A 1% gap may not seem like much to some, but Democrats are quite concerned about this trend.
In the identical survey conducted prior to the Democratic National Convention (DNC), Harris led Trump by 1%. For her, that’s a 2 percent dip, tipping the odds in Trump’s advantage. In Wisconsin, where racial disparities are extreme, even minor adjustments can have a significant impact.
The numbers are even more concerning given Emerson College’s polling history. Their most recent survey for 2020 gave Joe Biden a commanding 8 percent advantage. However, actual results revealed a much closer contest.
In fact, Biden led by an astounding 7.4 percent according to the poll. Should the trend in the current survey continue, the Democrats may be in for a major shock come election day.
Given that Wisconsin races are notoriously close, this shift might be the one that makes the difference. Harris’s team will need to move swiftly to reverse this negative trend if they hope to win in a state that has played a significant role in recent elections.
New surveys suggest that the’surge’ that Harris experienced following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal of his reelection campaign last month is coming to a stop.
A recent Napolitan Institute poll indicates that Trump is leading once more, matching the edge he had over Biden prior to the Democrats switching their support to Harris.
“In the race for the White House, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 46% to 45%. When leaners are included, the Napolitan News survey of 3,000 Likely Voters shows Trump ahead 49% to 47%. A week ago, the candidates were tied at 49% among Likely Voters,” the polling organization noted in a report on its findings.
“These numbers suggest that the initial Harris bounce is over. However, the core dynamics of the race remain unchanged. Love him or hate him, voters know what they think of Donald Trump. At this point in time, Kamala Harris remains largely unknown. That means events like the upcoming Democratic convention and presidential debates could have a bigger impact than usual.”
The organization stated that the presidential race remains too close to call at this stage. However, analysts have noted that in the past two elections, Trump has performed significantly better than his polling numbers suggested.
“Trump voters are slightly more likely to vote than Harris supporters. So, the former president does a bit better with a lower turnout. What’s especially amazing about this close race is that it’s quite plausible to envision either party winning a trifecta: control of the Presidency, the Senate, and the House. The most important race to determine Senate control is in Montana. The latest Napolitan News survey there shows Democrat Jon Tester with a narrow lead but the state’s political gravity is likely to boost Republican Tim Sheehy.
A report by Just the News cited the new polling data to explain that voters are “catapulting Trump to lead and ending Harris surge.”
The report noted Harris was leading Trump 44% to 43% in the same survey just a week ago, and held a five-point lead at the beginning of the month.
“These numbers suggest that the initial Harris bounce is over,” pollster Scott Rasmussen of the Napolitan Institute told Just the News.
