For the first time during the current election cycle, former newscaster and GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake has taken the lead in a new survey over her likely Democratic opponent, U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego.
Lake, who ran for governor of Arizona in 2022 with President Trump’s endorsement, is now showing a slight lead over Gallego of two percent, according to an analysis by The Hill. Early polls had favored the Democrat, but Lake has been consistently emphasizing the issue of immigration, attributing the surge of migrants at Arizona’s southern border to Gallego’s support of President Joe Biden’s policies. The strategy appears to resonate with some voters in a state that showed mixed political leanings in recent presidential elections, narrowly swinging from a Trump win in 2016 to a Biden win by a slim margin in 2020.
In the race for a Senate seat in Arizona, the impact of issues like migration and the high cost of living has significantly influenced voter sentiment, diminishing Gallego’s typical advantage of incumbency. Despite his congressional experience, these pressing local issues have left many Arizonans disillusioned.
Lake, who started her campaign in February, initially lagged about 5 percent behind Gallego in various polls. However, following Biden’s poorly received debate performance, her numbers improved, and the most recent polling data shows Lake leading Gallego 51-49 percent.
Great news, but let’s keep pushing for victory in 2024!! 🚨 @KariLake is leading in the Arizona Senate race according to the latest forecast. The momentum is on our side! https://t.co/XWjdTYjEyS ✔️🏜️ #KariLake #AZSenate #Election2024 pic.twitter.com/r37bGxkKGU
— Mike (@ewoestmike) July 10, 2024
“Incumbent first-term independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, initially elected as a Democrat in 2018 by a margin of 2.3% over then-Republican incumbent Sen. Martha McSally, left the Democratic Party in December 2022. She had initially filed paperwork to run for reelection as an independent but announced in March 2024 that she would not seek a second term,” The Hill’s analysis noted.
“Democrats have won four consecutive statewide federal elections in Arizona and flipped the Governor’s office in 2022, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and hold a minimum majority in Arizona’s U.S. House delegation. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016, while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020,” the analysis continued.
Following her 2022 loss to now-Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, Lake pursued several legal cases challenging the integrity of the election, but without success. But in recent months, Lake has shifted her focus to actively addressing core issues such as Washington’s dysfunction, rampant inflation, and the need for more housing in the Southwest.
The issues appear to be connecting with many voters, positioning her as a candidate in tune with everyday concerns. Additionally, she has garnered significant support within her party, securing endorsements from 23 of the 49 Republican Senators.
The robust backing was evident in April when Trump hosted a fundraising event for her at Mar-a-Lago, where she raised over $1 million, setting a new record for a non-incumbent at the club. The strong financial and political support underscores her prominent stance in the Republican primary scheduled for July 30th, reports note.
According to her campaign, Lake brought in $4.1 million during the first quarter of this year, which “is roughly twice as much as she raised in 2023’s last fundraising quarter,” The Daily Caller reported in April, adding that she had around $2.5 million in cash on hand at the time.
“Kari Lake doubled her fundraising haul from last quarter. She is seeing strong from grassroots donors and Arizona donors,” a Lake campaign spokesperson noted in a statement. “Gallego is Far-Left, and out of step with Arizonans. Just like President Trump, Kari is performing strong in Arizona and will win in November.”
Lake’s campaign generated $1.3 million through 40,000 contributions, which came from approximately 22,000 individual donors. The donations were mostly small dollar amounts, with 99% of them under $200. The campaign was able to collect contributions from all 50 states in the US, as well as from Guam, Puerto Rico, and Washington, D.C., the report said.
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