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POLL: Kari Lake Could Win in Arizona Senate Race

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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.


Govenor? Vice President? Senator? Republican Kari Lake has a lot of options on the table.

Lake’s lawsuit challenging her loss in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election has now made its way to the state Supreme Court. She’s also been asked about reports that former President Donald Trump could be “seriously” considering her to be his 2024 running mate. And now an early poll exploring the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona found that Lake could win the race.

A recent survey by Blueprint Polling found that Lake is leading by 4 points over Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and by 22 points over incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who switched her party registration from Democrat to Independent.

“An early 2023 survey of likely general election voters illustrates that Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s path to
reelection is both complicated and unprecedented. Sinema runs a distant third in a hypothetical three-way race in the general that also includes 2022 GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Democratic
Congressman Ruben Gallego,” the survey found.

“Kari Lake polls at 36% in a three-way Senate race with Gallego and Sinema. The congressman follows closely at 32% while the incumbent polls less than 14%. One in six voters are undecided. Sinema draws support from both Republicans and Democrats—she gets the vote of 15% of Biden 2020 voters and 11% of Trump 2020 voters,” the group found.

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The Cook Political Report also recently published an analysis detailing how Sinema and Gallego could pull enough support from one another to give Lake an edge in the 2024 Senate race.

Sen. Krysten Sinema’s decision to switch from Democrat to independent may have saved *her* a primary, but it’s given Democrats a huge headache. First, and foremost the DSCC and other Democratic allies will have to decide whether to support the official Democratic nominee (likely Rep. Ruben Gallego) or their Senate colleague who, while identifying as an independent, still caucuses with Senate Democrats.

Then there’s the question of what a three-way contest between Sinema, Gallego, and a GOP nominee would look like. Recent polling in the state showing Gallego leading in a number of potential scenarios is a bit misleading. After all, unlike his potential challengers (Sinema and failed GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake), Gallego hasn’t been hit with millions of dollars of negative advertising.

The five-term congressman represents an overwhelmingly Democratic district and has never received less than 75% of the vote. Moreover, it’s likely that Gallego will be attacked not just by Republicans, but by Sinema as well. A messy GOP primary only adds to the uncertainty of how this thing plays out in the fall. And the Biden campaign can’t afford a “Democrats in disarray” scenario in this must-win state either. Overall, it’s just a big mess.

Earlier this week, Lake shot down a report that Trump is “seriously” considering her to be his 2024 running mate.

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“Former President Trump is strongly considering picking a female running mate — and sees Kari Lake as a model for his vice presidential pick, according to people who discussed the topic with him. Trump is already gaming out the general election in November 2024 — and knows he has a massive weakness with the white suburban women he would need to beat President Biden,” Axios reported.

“Lake, a former TV anchor who lost her race for Arizona governor in November, meets Trump’s most important qualification for a No. 2: She has shown she’s willing to defend him vociferously, no matter the issue or controversy. But Trump friends say Lake carries a big downside: He wants no risk that his running mate could outshine him. Lake would be assumed to be angling for president from the day she entered the White House. She made a political trip to Iowa last month,” the report added.

Steven Cheung, a Trump spokesperson, responded to the Axios report.

“Anyone who thinks they know what President Trump is going to do is seriously misinformed and trying to curry favor with ‘potential’ V.P. candidates. President Trump will choose his running mate on his own time, and those who are playing the media game are doing so at their own peril,” Cheung said in a statement to Axios.

Lake’s team responded by pouring cold water on the idea.

“I am 100% dedicated to serving as Arizona Governor. I will also work to make sure President Trump gets back in the White House ASAP. Anything outside of those two goals is nothing but a distraction,” Lake told the Daily Mail.

Lake said, arguing that her “best days are ahead” as her election challenge to the Arizona gubernatorial outcome is headed to the state’s Supreme Court.

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