OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
There is a major population shift currently taking place in the United States, and if the current trend holds, it won’t bode well for Democrat-controlled states by the time the next Census rolls around in 2030.
According to new Census Bureau data, states with Democratic governors and Democrat-controlled legislatures, including Oregon, California, Illinois, New York, and Pennsylvania, witnessed population declines ranging from 0.01% to 0.52% between July 2022 and July 2023.
This trend, similar to the lead-up to the 2020 Census, could potentially result in these states losing seats in the House of Representatives and votes in the Electoral College in 2030 if the pattern persists, the Daily Caller reported, citing the data.
“On its face, the trends look pretty bad for Democrats” as it relates to House reapportionment, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
“But, it’s also premature to extrapolate trends from the last three years on to the next seven years,” he added. “In all likelihood, we will see a continued shift from California, New York, Illinois, and Pennsylvania to the sunbelt and more Republican-leaning states. However, the magnitude of that shift is what’s up in the air.”
The DCNF added: “New York saw the largest exodus, experiencing a net population loss of 101,984 people, according to Census estimates. California saw the second worst net loss at 75,423 people, followed by Illinois’ loss of 32,826 people.”
A GOP-run state, West Virginia, also saw a decline in population as did Louisiana, which had a Democratic governor and retains a Republican-controlled legislature.
🚨2030 Apportionment Forecast🚨
+4: TX
+3: FL
+1: AZ, GA, ID, NC, TN, UT-4: CA
-3: NY
-2: IL
-1: MN, OR, PA, RI* Based on the 2023 Census Population Estimates released December 19, 2023. pic.twitter.com/VuekvnsiGG
— The American Redistricting Project (@MappingAmerica) December 19, 2023
Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Arizona experienced substantial net gains, each growing by 1% or more. Texas led the way with a net increase of 473,453 residents, closely followed by Florida, which saw a net growth of 365,205 people, the DCNF added.
Wasserman told the DCNF that he suspects individuals relocating from traditionally Democratic states to more Republican ones are likely more conservative than people in their home states yet still more liberal than individuals already residing in the states they are moving to.
“Left-leaning states like New York, Illinois and California lost House seats following the 2020 Census, while right-leaning states like Texas, Florida and Montana gained seats,” the outlet noted further.
An October analysis of 2020 Census Bureau data is better news for former President Donald Trump than it is for President Joe Biden, should the two face off against each other again next year.
The Electoral College map is looking better for Republicans, generally, as “red states such as Florida and Texas picking up Electoral College votes, while blue states such as California, New York and Illinois lost them,” The Western Journal reported then.
According to Ballotpedia, 13 states lost and gained electoral votes following the last census. Texas, for instance, gained an additional two congressional districts/electoral college votes. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each picked up one as well; three of those — Florida, Montana, and North Carolina — trend red or are genuinely red.
At the same time, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia each lost one. Of those, California, Illinois, Michigan, and New York are blue or trend blue, while Pennsylvania is leaning that way. Ohio and West Virginia are reliably red.
“Biden won the 2020 race 306-232 in the Electoral College. However, with the new electoral vote breakdown in place, Biden’s win in 2020 would have dipped slightly to 303-235, according to the site 270 to Win,” The Western Journal noted, adding: Those three votes could make the difference in 2024, based on the results of a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey published Thursday.
The poll showed Trump ahead of Biden in Arizona (47 to 43 percent), Georgia (48 to 43 percent), Wisconsin (46 to 44 percent) and Pennsylvania (46 to 45 percent) in a head-to-head matchup for the White House.
