OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
House Speaker Mike Johnson could already be facing some serious political headwinds going into the new year as internal strife might derail agreements on U.S. government funding, war aid to Ukraine, and border policy.
It may even lead to him losing his job.
After a bipartisan defense policy bill was passed on Thursday, despite strong objections from 73 ultra-conservatives, the House was sent home for the holidays by the Republican from Louisiana, who was elected speaker in October following the ouster of his predecessor by GOP hardliners for making deals with Democrats.
Virginia GOP Rep. Bob Good, the incoming chairman of that rebellious group, warned after the vote on the defense bill: “If we do things like what we did today, then the Freedom Caucus will absolutely be a problem.”
Since Good and his fellow Freedom Caucus members are opposed to both the expansion of controversial electronic spying and the preservation of the Pentagon’s abortion travel policy, they rejected the comprehensive measure.
With the support of more Democrats than Republicans, the measure was able to pass the House in the end.
Just last month, Johnson managed to avoid a government shutdown by approving a short-term spending deal that looked suspiciously similar to the one that former Speaker Kevin McCarthy had struck in September, further infuriating ultra-conservatives.
As a result, conservative lawmakers retaliated by blocking spending bills for weeks.
“Unlike McCarthy, Johnson will have a second chance at government funding when the House reconvenes just 10 days before a Jan. 19 fiscal deadline. The only way to avoid a shutdown is to risk further inflaming hardliners by striking a quick deal with Senate Democrats and the White House. Such a deal will be difficult because Johnson is so far siding with conservatives in seeking a lower overall spending level,” Bloomberg reported.
“At the same time, Johnson must sort out $66 billion in Ukraine aid and border policy, two issues that have become enmeshed amid GOP demands that any funding for Kyiv come with changes to US immigration laws. Ultra-conservatives say Ukraine aid should be shelved entirely until after the number of migrants crossing the US-Mexico border declines,” the outlet added. “House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul said the Freedom Caucus is less influential on Ukraine aid, which has support from the majority of both parties, than on immigration, long a priority of ultra-conservatives.”
For example, if conservatives succeed in revoking the president’s authority to deport migrants, it could protect Johnson from a rebellion related to Ukraine.
“I’ve always said the majority of the majority in both parties is going to be needed,” McCaul said.
However, some conservatives find this discussion of bipartisan coalitions irritating.
The new speaker faces a treacherous situation where he risks losing his job and the House’s capacity to function if he makes the wrong move. Committee on Rules Chairman Tom Cole, a lieutenant in Johnson’s administration, downplayed the seriousness of the potential for removal.
To make a policy point, you only need to remove a speaker once, according to Cole. “You pull it off again—you’re nothing more than an assassin,” he reiterated.
But the Freedom Caucus isn’t ruling anything out either. According to Good, Republicans in the House were unable to use their majority in 2023 “to force change on Washington as a whole and stand our ground with battling with the Senate.”
“That is why we have a new speaker,” he continued.
