Republican Sen. Ashley Moody holds a lead over Democratic challenger Angie Nixon in several recent Florida Senate polls, although a new survey shows the contest considerably closer than other polling conducted in recent weeks.
With the November 3 midterm elections approaching, Moody is seeking to retain the Senate seat she was appointed to fill following Marco Rubio’s departure to become secretary of state.
The latest RealClearPolling average, covering surveys conducted between September 8 and October 7, places Moody at 49.3% and Nixon at 42.3%, giving the Republican a seven-percentage-point advantage.
However, individual surveys have produced substantially different results, underscoring uncertainty about the size of Moody’s support.
A St. Pete Polls survey conducted October 5–7 found Moody receiving 47% support compared with 45% for Nixon.
The two-point difference falls within the survey’s 3.4-percentage-point margin of error.
The poll surveyed 836 likely Florida voters and represents a considerably closer contest than several other recent surveys.
In September, the same polling organization found the candidates tied at approximately 45% each.
The latest findings suggest relatively little movement between those two surveys, although the results contrast with polling from other organizations.
An NBC 6/Telemundo survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy found Moody leading Nixon 50% to 40%.
While she’s busy campaigning with radical gun grabber David Hogg, Angie Nixon is projected to lose by around a massive 970,000 votes
This embarrassing performance would be the third worst a democrat has EVER out up in the history of United States senate elections in Florida! https://t.co/UjHp59oPxX
— 1611 Populist (@KJVPopulist) October 8, 2026
The survey, conducted September 28 through October 1, included 625 likely voters and carried a margin of error of four percentage points.
Moody received support from 91% of Republican respondents, while Nixon led among independent voters, 41% to 35%. The poll also found 16% of independents undecided.
A separate Stetson University survey conducted September 14–21 showed Moody ahead 51% to 40%.
Other recent surveys have reported smaller differences, including a YouGov poll showing Moody at 49% and Nixon at 44%.
Taken together, the results demonstrate why polling averages can provide a different picture from any single survey.
Moody previously served as Florida’s attorney general before Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed her to the U.S. Senate in January 2025.
She replaced Rubio after President Donald Trump selected him to lead the State Department.
The November election will determine who serves the remainder of Rubio’s Senate term.
Moody secured the Republican nomination in August after defeating several lesser-known primary opponents.
The senator has emphasized her experience as Florida’s attorney general and her support for the Trump administration’s priorities, particularly immigration enforcement and public safety.
Her campaign has also highlighted her work on law enforcement issues and efforts to combat drug trafficking.
Moody has criticized Democratic policies on immigration, government spending and public safety.
Nixon, a Democratic state representative from Jacksonville, won her party’s nomination in August.
She defeated Alexander Vindman, a former U.S. Army officer and National Security Council official who was a central figure during Trump’s first impeachment over Ukraine.
She also made news earlier this year for disrupting a Florida legislative session to redistrict the state to favor more GOP candidates by taking to the House floor with a megaphone.
This is Angie Nixon. The Democrat nominee for US Senate in Florida.
Not a joke. https://t.co/omxhOlFAek
— Ashley Moody (@AshleyMoodyFL) August 19, 2026
The candidates have also disagreed over immigration enforcement and the federal government’s role in addressing economic inequality. Moody is in favor of Trump’s strict enforcement of federal immigration laws and less government involvement in Americans’ lives, while Nixon has taken the opposite approach.
The Senate contest is unfolding in a state that has undergone significant political changes over the past decade.
Florida was once regarded as one of the country’s most competitive presidential battlegrounds, but Republicans have expanded their voter-registration advantage and strengthened their position in statewide elections.
Trump carried Florida in the 2024 presidential election, while Republicans continued to hold both U.S. Senate seats and the governor’s office.
The state’s political environment provides important context for the Moody-Nixon contest, although previous election results do not establish how voters will behave in November.
Recent polling also indicates that independent voters remain an important part of the electorate, with some surveys showing substantial numbers still undecided.
Moody has emphasized Republican turnout and warned supporters against assuming the election is settled.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
