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Trump Winning Every Swing State is Most Likely Scenario: Nate Silver Model

Photo of Martin Walsh Martin WalshOctober 24, 2024
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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.

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Nate Silver’s most recent prediction is that former President Donald Trump could win all of the important split states in the 2024 election.

Silver’s research shows that Trump has a 24.4% chance of winning all seven swing states in November. This is the most likely outcome. The forecast also says that Harris has a 15.6% chance of winning all the battleground states.

It also shows that Harris would win the race if she won all the swing states except Arizona and Georgia, where Trump is currently ahead. His model, on the other hand, says that this is only 1.7% likely to happen. On the other hand, it’s 3.4% likely that Harris will win Georgia but not Arizona, and 2.9% likely that the Democrats will win Arizona but not Georgia.

The model shows that there is a 4.6% chance that the Republicans will win every swing state except Nevada, where Harris is currently ahead by a very small amount. In this case, Trump would win the election because the vice president would get 232 electoral college votes.

Silver’s overall prediction shows that Harris is most likely to win when Democrats win between three and five of the key states. That’s how many electoral college votes the vice president would need to win if she only won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. That’s an 86.2 percent chance of winning overall.

Polls show that Trump is ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. A tracker from FiveThirtyEight says the former president is ahead by 0.2 points in Pennsylvania, but a tracker from Silver says the state is tied.

The prediction from Silver says that Harris has a 0.6% chance of winning the race if she only wins Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. If she gets Pennsylvania, her chances go up to 98.9 percent. Silver’s model, on the other hand, says that this unlikely event is only 2.9% likely to happen.

In the last two weeks, expectations for the electoral college have changed to show that Trump is more likely to win than Harris. As an example, Silver currently thinks that Trump has a 53.1% chance of getting the Electoral College vote, while Harris only thinks that Trump has a 46.6% chance.

FiveThirtyEight’s prediction has also changed in Trump’s favor. It now says that Trump has a 51% chance of winning the election, while Harris only has a 49% chance. At the same time, RealClearPolitics predicts that Trump will win all four swing states, giving him 312 Electoral College votes to Harris’s 227.

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This comes after four national polls came out this month showing Trump ahead of Harris.

Still, the race is still very close. “The race has gone from almost a toss-up to definitely a toss-up,” last week told Newsweek Jon Parker, a senior lecturer in American studies at Keele University in the U.K. He did say, though, that this “does not mean that either campaign is winning or losing.”

This comes as Donald Trump’s encouragement, Republicans are voting early once again, heading to the polls for in-person voting ahead of Election Day and contributing to a national total of nearly 19 million early ballots.

The early turnout is setting records in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina, the Associated Press reported.

The GOP hopes this surge in early voting will address a mechanical issue that some within the party attribute to losses in the 2020 presidential election and key races in 2022. Campaigns typically prefer their supporters to vote early so they can concentrate resources on mobilizing more marginal voters right before Election Day.

“I am telling everyone to vote early,” Trump said on a podcast last week hosted by conservative and former Secret Service Agent Dan Bongino.

Republicans appear to be responding positively. In Nevada, where Democrats have historically relied on a strong early voting turnout to counter the GOP on Election Day, approximately 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats had cast early ballots as of Tuesday, according to research by the Associated Press.

However, it’s unclear what this means for the election. Early voting data only indicates voters’ party registration, not their actual voting intentions, and the early electorate can fluctuate daily as more people vote, the AP added.

The surge in early voting among Democrats in 2020 was largely a reaction to the pandemic, which is no longer a factor, complicating historical comparisons. Additionally, what might seem like demographic trends in early voting can quickly change once Election Day votes are included.

It is still quite early in the voting process, the AP added in an apparent attempt to damper GOP enthusiasm. Wisconsin, the last of the seven swing states, began its early voting on Tuesday morning, and the 17.4 million voters who have cast ballots so far this year represent only about 11% of the total ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election.

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Parties can build leads in early voting, but those leads can disappear on Election Day if all their supporters have already voted while the opposing side has not yet cast their ballots, a phenomenon that typically favored Republicans in the past.

James Blair, the political director for Trump’s campaign, stated that their data indicates a higher number of low-propensity voters casting ballots early compared to those who might typically support Vice President Kamala Harris, the AP reported. “The starting point is, we’re in a strong spot,” Blair said.

Democrats in the battleground of Pennsylvania have already sent in about 350,000 more mail ballots than Republicans as of Tuesday. “But the GOP is making up ground by voting early in-person in most competitive states,” the AP added.

Continuing an October trend, Trump has expanded his lead over Harris in the latest Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll.

The organization recently shared its findings with Secrets, indicating that Trump now holds a 3-point lead at 50% to Harris’s 47%. Previously, he led by a narrower margin of 49% to 47%.

“In the survey, Trump leads Harris among Hispanic voters, 49%-45%, and he is winning 32% of the black vote,” the Washington Examiner reported, citing the data.

Rasmussen recently transitioned to producing a daily presidential election tracking poll and expanded its survey sample on Monday to include 3,384 likely voters, resulting in a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point.

The polling model continues to reflect the composition used in the 2020 election, featuring 35% Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 32% independents, the outlet added.

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Photo of Martin Walsh Martin WalshOctober 24, 2024