OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
A number of political analyses in recent weeks have portrayed a so-called “red wave” of Republican victories in the November midterms as increasingly less likely, but a new survey released over the weekend begs to differ.
“Last fall, Republicans held high hopes of a “red wave” in the 2022 elections after they stormed to power in blue-leaning Virginia and nearly won the governor’s race in New Jersey. While Democrats were demotivated, the GOP base was on fire,” NBC News reported last week in an analysis.
“But in recent weeks, numerous data points have indicated Republican prospects of a smashing victory are dimming. While the president’s party tends to perform poorly in midterm elections, there are signs it is shaping up to be an unusual year, potentially enabling Democrats to hold one or both chambers of Congress,” the outlet continued, sprinkling in some examples of recent Democratic election victories to bolster its argument.
In late August, The Hill published a similar report under the headline: “Red wave hits breaker: GOP midterm worries rise.”
The outlet quoted a Republican consultant, Rick Tyler, who claimed that GOP voter enthusiasm has cratered, saying that the political environment is “not even close” to a “red wave” election year.
“The enthusiasm is just not there,” Tyler told The Hill. “Last time Republicans had a good year, they were 6 points ahead in the generic poll. Now we’re barely 2 points ahead. So it’s definitely not going to happen.”
Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) made a similar observation.
“Republicans have to start paying attention. The problem is where Republicans have to pick up in order to win the Congress is in districts like that,” Santorum told the outlet. “If you look at the national polls, if you look at a lot of these races like in my home state of Pennsylvania — if this is a red wave year, the polls are not showing it right now.”
But according to the newly-released Trafalgar Group’s Generic Ballot Nationwide Survey, pollsters found that respondents are definitely more prone to cast votes for GOP candidates than they are for Democrats.
The survey, conducted Aug. 28-30, found that 47.2 percent of respondents said they plan on voting for the GOP candidate in November, compared to 41.4 percent who prefer Democrats. Some 11.4 percent were undecided.
Interestingly, more self-described Democrats (39.3 percent) took part in the survey than self-identified Republicans (35.6 percent). And more women (53.3 percent) responded than men (46.7 percent).
Still, other Republicans are warning that whatever the shifting dynamics, the elections in November are obviously not a done deal yet.
“Anyone who thought retaking the majority was going to be easy needs to buck up,” National Republican Congressional Committee communications director Michael McAdams said in a statement, according to The Hill.
McAdams, and other Republicans, say the emphasis for the party needs to be squarely on Joe Biden and Democratic policies, while Biden and Democrats are trying to make the November races about former President Donald Trump.
“Majorities are won in November not August and we look forward to prosecuting the case against Democrats’ failed one-party rule,” McAdams added, according to The Hill.
Other Republican advisers were more upbeat, even after Democrats won a special election in a New York district that went for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of Republican Main Street Partnership, said many voters were not even aware the special election was taking place while others were on vacation.
“I would not red flag it yet” as a sign of a faltering red wave, she told The Hill. “We’re going to wait to see and do some more polling, but I think things are fine.”
In Alaska, where Democrat Mary Peltola was declared the winner of a special election to fill the late Rep. Don Young’s (R) remaining term, the two Republican candidates — Trump-backed Sarah Palin and Nick Begich — received a combined 60 percent of the vote. But Peltola won due the state’s “ranked-choice” voting system because she individually received a higher percentage of the vote than either Palin or Begich.
Should either Palin or Begich bow out ahead of November, it seems likely that Alaskans would rally to the remaining Republican, given the state’s historically red leaning.
