OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Democrats have a thin 51-49 majority in the Senate, which they were already in danger of losing during the November elections, but a new survey in the blue state of Maryland is more bad news for the party.
Former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan launched a surprise campaign for the seat currently occupied by retiring Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin and, according to a new Emerson College poll, is currently tied with Democratic Rep. David Trone at 42 percent, while leading Democratic County Executive Angela Alsobrooks by seven points.
In a direct face-off against Trone, Hogan garnered 48 percent backing from independent voters and approximately a quarter of Democratic voters, as per the survey. Among independents, Hogan prevailed over Alsobrooks with a 43 percent to 18 percent margin, while 31 percent of Democratic voters opted for the Republican candidate, the survey said.
The Emerson College survey polled 1,000 registered voters in Maryland from Feb. 12 to Feb. 13 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.
Ahead of the May 17 race, Hogan clinched a plurality of support for the Republican nomination at 43 percent, with no other candidate reaching double-digit support and 43 percent of voters undecided, as per the poll. Trone led Alsobrooks in the Democratic primary, securing 32 percent support compared to Alsobrooks’ 17 percent, with 37 percent of voters still undecided.
Trone attempted to turn the polling data into a positive for his campaign.
“This poll confirms what we hear everywhere that I go: Marylanders are sick and tired of career politicians like Larry Hogan and Mitch McConnell and the special interests that they serve in Washington at the expense of hard-working Americans,” he said in a statement. “We’re excited to see another poll that shows the hard work of our supporters is growing our lead in the Democratic primary, but we must remain focused on building the Democratic base and a ground game that can beat Larry Hogan and Mitch McConnell and protect our Senate majority in November.”
Larry Hogan is a decidedly anti-Trump voice. But still better than a Democrat, and MD is a blue state generally. Let them fight https://t.co/gWsS8iW8xv
— Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) February 10, 2024
📊 MARYLAND POLL: Emerson
SEN:
Larry Hogan (R): 44% (+7)
Angela Alsobrooks (D): 37%
.
Larry Hogan (R): 42% (=)
David Trone (D): 42%
—
DEM SEN:
Trone: 32% (+15)
Alsobrooks: 17%
—
PRES:
Biden: 55% (+23)
Trump: 32%
—
538 Rank: #8 (2.9/3.0) | RVs | 2/12-13https://t.co/MmZXc63X4v pic.twitter.com/vXjKth3nKQ— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 15, 2024
In 2014, the former governor clinched his initial victory by defeating his Democratic opponent with a margin of 51 percent to 47.2 percent. Hogan then secured a second term in 2018 with a double-digit lead, making him just the second Republican governor in Maryland’s history to win reelection.
The Daily Caller adds:
The Cook Political Report characterizes the race as in the “Likely D” column for 2024, along with indicted Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey’s seat.
The Emerson College poll also found President Joe Biden leading former President Donald Trump, the clear frontrunner for the 2024 Republican nomination, 55% to 32% for a potential general election matchup, with 13% remaining undecided. The president’s lead shrinks to 16 points when third-party candidates are included.
Biden won Maryland by roughly 33 points in 2020, and Hillary Clinton beat Trump for the state 60.3% to 33.9% the previous cycle.
That said,Biden appears to be coming up on the short end of the stick in a big battleground state when it comes to the effect of third-party candidates for the White House.
According to a poll of registered Michigan voters conducted by Fox News, in a rematch of their 2020 contest, former President Donald Trump gets 47 percent to Biden’s 45 percent, though Trump’s 2-point lead is well within the survey’s margin of error.
While Trump won Michigan by a slim half-point margin in 2016, Biden won the state by just 3 points in 2020. Trump’s win was the first for a GOP candidate in Michigan since Ronald Reagan’s resounding victory in 1988.
“Biden’s best groups include those that traditionally go Democratic, including liberals, Black voters, suburban women, those voting on the abortion issue and voters with a college degree. He’s also ahead with those living in union households, voters ages 65 and over, and women,” Fox News added.
