Elections come down to turn out. One of the most important measurements pollsters look at is “enthusiasm” that voters have for their candidate.
The more excited they are for a candidate, the more inclined they are to go to the polls and vote for them.
As of right now, President Donald Trump is winning that battle over Democratic candidate Joe Biden in one crucial 2020 battleground state.
According to the Trafalgar Group polls, Trump leads Biden 47 to 45 percent in Michigan.
Trafalgar was the only pollster in 2016 to accurately predict that Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016.
#NEW Michigan Poll:
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 28, 2020
The poll, conducted between Aug. 14 and Aug. 23, comes a day after Trump wrapped up the Republican National Convention, and less than a week after the Democratic National Convention.
The poll surveyed 1,048 respondents and carries a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.
More than 40 percent of the people the firm polled were between the ages of 45 and 64, and white people made up 81% of respondents.
Earlier this week, Trafalgar Group released another poll showing that Trump is winning that battle over Democratic candidate Joe Biden in one crucial 2020 battleground state.
According to the Trafalgar Group polls, Trump leads Biden 46 to 45 in Wisconsin.
Trump 46% (+1)
Jorgensen 4%@trafalgar_group (8/14-23)
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 26, 2020
The Trafalgar Group was named “the most accurate pollsters” of the 2018 cycle.
With that in mind, a brand new poll shows that Trump supporters are far more fired up about voting for the president than those who support Joe Biden.
According to a poll from Rasmussen Reports, Trump’s approval is back to 51 percent and supporters are 70 percent more enthusiastic than Biden’s.
President Trump, scratching back to just 4-6 points behind challenger Joe Biden, is being bolstered by new polls showing a surge in his approval rating and a widening “enthusiasm gap” favoring him over his Democratic foe.
Just out is the daily Rasmussen Reports presidential approval rating for Trump at 51%.
Notably, said Rasmussen, at this stage of his presidency, former President Barack Obama had a 44% approval rating.
Add to that new polling from Economist/YouGov that shows the president’s supporters far more enthusiastic about him, and voting for him, than those of Biden’s.
When asked, “How do you feel about the presidential candidates listed below?” 40% of Biden’s supporters said “enthusiastic” compared to 68% of Trump’s supporters.
And when asked, “How enthusiastic are you about voting for president in the upcoming presidential election in November?” 53% of Biden’s supporters said “extremely or very enthusiastic” compared to 76% of Trump supporters.
What’s more, Trump supporters are more enthusiastic than Biden’s to vote this year compared to past years, with 55% for Trump and 53% for Biden. The survey, however, noted that the “enthusiasm gap” wrongly predicted that Mitt Romney would edge Obama in 2012.
This new poll comes after Trump held his first-ever virtual fundraiser and raised a whopping $20 million from the more than 300,000 individual donors who participated.