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New Battleground State Surveys Show Trump Galloping Past Biden

Photo of Jon Dougherty Jon DoughertyFebruary 23, 2024
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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.

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A series of surveys in three battleground states show that former President Donald Trump is widening his lead over President Joe Biden, with the election less than ten months away.

Emerson College’s initial poll looked at the Trump and Biden presidential contest in Georgia. It revealed Trump leading Biden by six points, with 48 percent of the respondents supporting Trump compared to Biden’s 42 percent. Additionally, 11 percent of respondents remained undecided.

The survey, conducted from February 14-16, 2024, among 1,000 registered voters, also indicated that Biden had a slight edge over Trump among independents, with 44 percent supporting Biden and 39 percent supporting Trump, though 18 percent remained undecided.

A second Emerson College survey taken on the same dates showed Trump leading Biden by 3 points in North Carolina, 47-44 percent, though 10 percent are undecided.

Trump’s lead over Biden widens when third-party candidates are taken into account. In this scenario, Trump leads with 46 percent support compared to Biden’s 37 percent. Additionally, five percent of the support goes to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while one percent each goes to Cornel West and Jill Stein.

Emerson College noted further:

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Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said, “A majority of voters under 30 break for President Biden over Trump, 53% to 35%, along with a plurality of voters in their 30s, 47% to 40%. Voters in their 40s are evenly split: 45% support each candidate. Voters over 50 support Trump over Biden, 52% to 40%. In addition, independent voters in North Carolina break for Trump over Biden, 43% to 40%.”

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Importantly, a third poll — this one conducted by USA Today — found that Trump was leading Biden by 4 points in Michigan, a state he barely won in 2016 but then lost to Biden in 2020.

USA Today noted:

That 4-percentage-point split is equal to the poll’s margin of error, meaning statistically speaking the race could be tied. But a number of Michigan polls in recent months have shown Trump ahead of Biden, suggesting the former president does have an edge on the incumbent, even if it’s only a slim one.

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Earlier this month, according to a Fox News survey, Trump received 51 percent support in Georgia, while Biden’s support has fallen to just 43 percent.

Among the subset of Georgians who express a high level of interest in the race, 78 percent are either extremely or very interested. The voting preferences within this group are closely divided, with 52 percent favoring Trump and 43 percent supporting Biden, Fox News noted, citing the survey’s results.

Trump garners robust backing from his core constituencies, such as White evangelicals (85 percent), conservatives (76 percent), White voters lacking a college degree (74 percent), and rural voters (67 percent). Meanwhile, Biden’s support comes primarily from liberals (87 percent), Black voters (71 percent), college-educated voters (52 percent), and suburban women (52 percent), the survey said.

While Trump’s loss of suburban women to a Democratic presidential incumbent is cause for concern, other political analysts pointed to Trump’s commanding lead over Biden with voters under the age of 35 as significant.

“Given that the Democrats won major U.S. Senate races in 2020 and 2022, Trump’s strength in this poll is somewhat surprising,” Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, told the outlet. “We can blather on (correctly) about how ‘anything can happen,’ but the reality is Biden may want to shift his focus and precious resources away from Georgia and onto other potential battleground states, such as North Carolina.”

Another poll published this month put Trump in a good position in several other swing states.

In November’s contest in Arizona (47-43 percent), Georgia (49-41), Michigan (47-42), Nevada (48-40), North Carolina (49-39), Pennsylvania (48-45), and Wisconsin (49-44), Biden is trailing the Republican front-runner by three to ten points, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll.

The average margin of victory for Trump over Biden in all states is 48–42, indicating that Biden’s chances of winning the next election appear slim, Newsweek reported.

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Photo of Jon Dougherty Jon DoughertyFebruary 23, 2024