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Noted Political Analysis Firm Projects Trump Will Win 2024 Election

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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.


A noted political analysis firm has projected that former President Donald Trump will eke out a victory in November against President Joe Biden.

The firm FiveThirtyEight, using its election model, which incorporates a range of factors, including a summary of polling data, projected Trump would win 52 out of 100 times in an election simulation earlier this week. On Friday, his chances had fallen to 51 out of 100, but still gave him the victory.

Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk noted the historic nature of FiveThirtyEight’s projection.

“This is the first time he has EVER led a 538 forecast, in any of his three races,” Kirk wrote.

The firm explained that its forecast “is based on a combination of polls and campaign ‘fundamentals,’ such as economic conditions, state partisanship, and incumbency. It’s not intended to predict a winner, but rather to provide insight into each candidate’s likelihood of winning.”

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According to FiveThirtyEight’s simulations, Trump is currently more likely to win the Electoral College, while Biden has an advantage in the national popular vote. In 38 out of 100 simulations, Trump was projected to secure fewer than 350 electoral votes, while Biden was favored in 28 out of 100 simulations. Biden was predicted to win the national popular vote in 59 out of 100 simulations, compared to Trump’s 41 out of 100.

Additionally, the simulations indicate that Trump is more likely to win at least one state that he did not win in 2020. Trump was projected to win one of these states in 80 out of 100 simulations, while Biden was favored in 48 out of 100 simulations for such states.

According to a new poll, Trump leads President Joe Biden by twice the margin of victory he had four years ago in the Lone Star State in the contest for Texas’ 40 electoral votes.

A Marist College survey released this month also showed Republican Sen. Ted Cruz leading Democratic opponent Rep. Colin Allred by six points in a crucial Senate contest as the GOP looks to recapture the majority in the chamber in November’s elections.

In 2020, Trump defeated Biden in Texas by about 5.5 points, the narrowest victory margin for a Republican presidential candidate in a deeply red state in almost 25 years.

“Independents, who Biden carried by 6 percentage points in 2020, now break for Trump. Trump receives 56% of Texas independents to 41% for Biden,” the release from Marist highlights.

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According to the poll, Trump has significantly increased his support among black and Latino voters, while Biden appears to have lost ground with younger voters.

In a significant shift,  Trump has also regained the lead from Biden in a crucial swing state that he won in 2016 but narrowly lost in 2020, according to a new survey.

Fox News reported that a separate Marist College Poll found that Trump is leading Biden 47–45 percent in Pennsylvania, though that is well within the survey’s margin of error.

Among the smaller pool of likely voters in the upcoming presidential election, the Republican nominee is maintaining a 48% to 46% lead over the Democratic incumbent in a multi-candidate race, Fox News added.

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In 2016, Trump achieved a historic win by becoming the first Republican in almost thirty years to carry Pennsylvania. This state is traditionally considered part of the Democratic stronghold in the northeastern and midwestern regions.

Trump’s victory over two-time presidential loser Hillary Clinton was narrow in the state, but it was nonetheless an impressive victory.

Some four years later, though, Biden narrowly carried his native state.

The poll from Marist, conducted June 3-6, points to problems for Biden with parts of the Democratic Party’s base.

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