OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
In a potential 2024 contest against former President Donald Trump, the “Keys to the White House” are leaning toward Vice President Kamala Harris. Nevertheless, a definitive forecast for the 2024 election has not yet been issued.
Allan Lichtman, an election forecaster who has been accurate in almost every race since 1984, developed a method for making predictions about upcoming presidential elections, Arizona Central reported.
Thirteen true-or-false questions make up Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House,” which he claims provides a clear indicator of the candidate who will be declared the winner on the autumn ballot.
Every question concerns one of the two rival nominees; if the answer is “true,” the contestant gets a “key,” and if the answer is “false,” the other contestant wins the point. The candidate of one party is expected to win if they receive six or more keys.
This year, he predicts Kamala Harris will win.
The 13 “keys” are: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.
The keys include whether:
–The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections.
–The sitting president is running for reelection.
–The White House party is avoiding a primary contest.
–There is a third-party challenger.
–The short-term economy is strong.
–The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms.
–The White House party has made major changes to national policy.
–There is sustained social unrest during the term.
–The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic.
–The challenger is uncharismatic.
–The incumbent is charismatic.
–The White House party has a major failure in foreign policy.
–The White House party has foreign policy success.
Lictman claims that 8 of the keys are in favor of Harris, while three are in favor of Trump. The final two foreign policy keys, according to Lichtman, are a toss-up.
One of the keys that was in favor of Harris in Lichtman’s prediction was the strength of the short-term economy. According to Lichtman, a strong short-term economy would make Harris look favorable in the eyes of voters.
This comes as polling has been good for Trump.
Trump looks to have made impressive gains over Vice President Kamala Harris, gaining roughly 14 points among independents and 19 points among Latino voters.
According to new polling from NPR/PBS News/Marist, Trump has surpassed Harris by three points among independents in a multi-candidate race, 49% to 46%. This represents a considerable increase since August, when Trump trailed Harris, 59, by 11 points, 48% to 37%.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who had received 12% of the vote in the previous survey, withdrew from the contest and endorsed Trump in the interim between the August and September polls. Furthermore, Harris’s “honeymoon” following her sudden ascent to the nomination has started to level out.
In August, Trump led Harris by fifteen points, 54% to 39%, among Latino voters; by now, Trump leads by four points, with 51% of the vote to Harris’s 47%.
“When Trump and Harris square off in Philadelphia, the stakes are sky-high because the contest is so close,” Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, explained.
“Only single digits separate the candidates on most issues important to voters. But voters who value honesty are overwhelmingly for Harris, and voters looking for strong leadership are mostly in Trump’s corner. Will this still be the case on Wednesday morning?”
According to the poll, almost 70% of Americans said they would watch the debate, and 30% of registered voters think it would influence their decision on who to support. However, 69% of respondents say it probably won’t be beneficial.
In another encouraging development for Trump, he narrowed the deficit against Harris in a national contest by two points, with the vice president barely edging him.
In the most recent survey of those registered to vote in a contest with several candidates, Harris defeated Trump 49% to 48%. When registered voters were pitted against multiple candidates back in August, Harris was leading 48% to 45%.
In contrast, among registered voters, Trump defeated President Biden 43% to 42% in the July survey.
In the September survey, Harris’ margin over Trump among those who were certain to vote increased to 51% to 48%.
According to the September results, Harris leads Trump by 15 points among women and by 12 points among males.
In the multi-candidate race, Harris received 74% of the support of black voters, while Trump received only 24% of the vote.
Voters gave her a slightly higher favorability rating than Harris, who received 47% favorable to 46% negative views, and Trump, who received 45% favorable to 50% unfavorable views.
52% of respondents identified Harris as the candidate most likely to support change, far more than the 47% who said Trump. Similarly, 52% of respondents claimed that Harris is more likely than Trump to be concerned about the average American.
Regarding philosophy, 47% of respondents thought Harris was too liberal, 41% said her views were “about right,” and 9% thought she was too conservative. In the meantime, 10% thought Trump was too liberal, 43% thought he was too conservative, and 43% said he was “about right.”