OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
An op-ed published in The New York Times identifies one major issue that is “keeping Democrats awake at night” as the country heads into another presidential election cycle.
“The composition of the minority electorate in the United States is rapidly changing. This constituency was once dominated by Black voters loyal to the Democratic Party. Now, African American clout has been eclipsed or at least threatened by Hispanic, Asian American and other nonwhite voters whose less firm loyalty to the Democratic Party lowers the party’s Election Day margins among people of color overall,” columnist Thomas Edsall wrote.
“This multiracial, multiethnic population constitutes one-third of the electorate, according to an article published by the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, ‘The Transformation of the American Electorate,’ which was written by Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory,” he added.
Adam Carlson, a data analyst, noted this trend recently on the X platform: “Eight months out from the election, polls are still suggesting 2024 will be the largest racial realignment since the Civil Rights Act was passed.”
8 months out from the election, polls are still suggesting 2024 will be the largest racial realignment since the Civil Rights Act was passed⁰
Here are the aggregated crosstabs from non-partisan GE polls from reputable pollsters fielded in Feb 2024
First up is Biden vs Trump
🧵 pic.twitter.com/ojRbBtFu6z— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) March 5, 2024
John Burn-Murdoch, the chief data reporter for The Financial Times, noted just a few days later that “American Politics Is Undergoing A Racial Realignment,” noting in particular that “many of America’s nonwhite voters have long held much more conservative views than their voting patterns would suggest. The migration we’re seeing today is not so much natural Democrats becoming disillusioned but natural Republicans realizing they’ve been voting for the wrong party.”
And last week, Nate Silver, citing Burn-Murdoch’s racial realignment article, posted “Democrats Are Hemorrhaging Support With Voters of Color” on his Substack.
The Times’ Edsall noted that some political scientists and other experts disagree that a major realignment is underway, but they nevertheless did admit almost universally that polling during the current election cycle regarding shifting racial demographics is bad news for President Joe Biden and his party.
In addition, recent polls have Trump gaining young voters — another traditional Democratic voting bloc –while they sprint away from Biden.
Trump is also poised to receive a higher percentage of the black vote in November than any other presidential candidate in recent history, according to an analysis of several recent polls.
“According to national and swing state polls reviewed by Bloomberg, the former president and GOP front runner has between 14 percent and 30 percent of the Black vote share as the country heads into an election year,” Newsweek reported. “This is far beyond the 8 percent of the Black vote the Pew Research Center said the Republican won in the 2020 presidential election and more than any Republican candidate before him.”
Biden received 92 percent of the black vote in 2020, the outlet noted further, adding that other recent polling showed him losing ground with the demographic.
In November, a former Black Lives Matter local chapter leader announced he was switching from Biden to Trump.
In an interview with “Fox & Friends,” BLM Rhode Island leader Mark Fisher made the announcement that he’s endorsing the 45th president in next year’s presidential race.
Co-host Lawrence Jones asked, “This is my favorite story of the day because it identifies what I have seen in the barbershop. All the brothers, for some reason right now are turning tides right now. I just wonder what is the big reason?”
“I think personally it’s the duplicity of the Democrats, the hypocrisy,” Fisher responded. “We are not stupid. The brothers are not stupid. We understand when someone is for us and when someone is not. It’s obvious that the Democratic Party is not for us.
“Their policies actually strike at the heart of the black family and nuclear family,” he added.
