OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
A new poll has found that former President Donald Trump is currently on pace to beat President Joe Biden in two key areas, which is adding to Democrats’ woes ahead of next year’s crucial election.
“A new poll from Stack Data Strategy found that Trump would beat Biden in the Electoral College, 292 to 246, if an election were held today,” the Washington Examiner reported. “Biden is still on track to win the popular vote, 49% to 48%, but he is projected to lose four battleground states he won in 2020, a blow to the president as he works to build his reelection campaign in states that house a heavy pro-Trump base.”
The survey also found that Biden would not carry Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the very same four states that shifted from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020, thwarting the former president’s bid for a second term in the White House.
Among all states in the 2020 election, the four mentioned states are anticipated to have the narrowest margins, all falling below 1.5 points. Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin specifically exhibit margins under 1 point in favor of Biden. Notably, there is a substantial swing in favor of Trump in Georgia and Pennsylvania, with margins of plus 2.3 points and plus 3.3 points, respectively, the Examiner reported, citing the poll.
“Our research is the largest exercise of its kind so far this cycle, and we can confidently say that as things currently stand, if Donald Trump is selected as the Republican candidate, he is likely to win,” Joe Bedell, head of Stack Data Strategy in North America, said, according to the outlet.
“Despite recent calls for change, our polling shows that neither party would benefit from a change in candidate, [and] President Trump would beat both of Biden’s possible replacements by an even greater margin,” he added.
The pollster’s “possible replacements” for Biden were Vice President Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. The latter has said he is not interested in running for president this cycle but has spent months boosting his national profile.
The Examiner adds:
The poll also does not provide comfort to third-party candidates and organizations that are looking for a unity ticket to run against Biden and Trump in 2024. No Labels, the most vocal third-party group this election cycle, has explained that launching a unity ticket may become necessary in 2024 “in the event both major parties nominate presidential candidates that the vast majority of Americans don’t want.”
A No Labels presentation in October found that having a Republican on top in a three-way race in eight battleground states — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — is the third-party group’s “best chance of winning.” This has caused panic among Democratic lawmakers and allies who worry that No Labels’s third-party efforts will aid the GOP and secure a Trump win.
National Democrats continue to fret over Biden’s falling approval rating and increasing concerns about his declining mental status. Also, some Democratic consultants have warned party leaders they “misunderstood” the level of support given to Biden by some voting blocs such as blacks and Muslims, many who were not enthused about Biden at all but voted for him because they were anti-Trump.
“People fundamentally misunderstood what black voters said in 2020,” Cliff Albright, co-founder of the Black Voters Matter Fund, said in an interview with the Washington Post. “The depth of support was never there. The enthusiasm was never there for Biden. We were very pragmatic. We knew he was the best chance to beat Trump.”
Following the release of a survey last week showing Trump beating Biden in several swing states, some Democrats publicly voiced their concern that Biden could lose next year.
“I am concerned,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said last week. “I was concerned before these numbers. I am concerned by the inexplicable credibility that Donald Trump seems to have despite all of the indictments, the lies, the incredible wrongdoing.”