OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
The Democrats just got more news about how dismal their chances of maintaining power are and it comes from an unexpected source.
Two pollsters who spoke to Fox News host Sean Hannity said that they have never seen this many black and Hispanic voters moving to the Republican Party,” The Daily Caller reported.
“We consistently see where the African American vote, about 20% or more, are going for Republican candidates,” InsiderAdvantage chairman Matt Towery said of the midterm elections in Georgia and Pennsylvania.
“When it comes to either Hispanic, Latino or what we call other, sometimes it’s 60-something percent for the Republican,” he said. “These are things that we’ve never seen before. I’ve never seen Republican candidates getting 20% of the African American vote this close to an election. I certainly have never seen Hispanic, Latinos or other races trending Republican like I’m seeing in this particular year.”
Asian-American voters apparently turned against Democrats in the recall campaign against San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin. Some Republicans believe that reported discrimination against Asian Americans in academic admissions is one issue driving the shift of Asian-Americans to vote for GOP candidates.
Republican Rep. Mayra Flores of Texas won a special election in a congressional district President Joe Biden carried by 13 points in June. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas told the Daily Wire Democrats were “privately panicking” about the loss of Hispanic voters to the GOP.
Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar noted that Republican Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia and Republican Senate nominees Dr. Mehmet Oz of Pennsylvania and Herschel Walker of Georgia were performing well with black voters.
“The two states you mentioned are particularly interesting, with Walker doing 23% among black voters. Governor Kemp is doing 20,” he said. “What is really fascinating how well Oz is doing. We’ve got Oz in the 30s and the only one in the country breaking 20% with African American women.”
It continues a trend of tough news for Democrats as a red wave appears to be imminent.
The Pennsylvania Senate campaign is getting to the nitty gritty and Republicans have reason to be optimistic.
The Republican candidate, Dr. Mehmet Oz, who has been supported by former President Donald Trump, has taken the lead over his Democrat opponent John Fetterman, a recent polls showed, Breitbart news reported.
The Wick Insights poll published Wednesday shows that 49.1 percent of the 1013 likely voters sampled are backing Oz, while 44.6 percent support Fetterman. Another 3.4 percent plan to vote for someone else, and 2.9 percent are undecided. A Fox 29/Insider Advantage poll from earlier this week showed the pair tied after Oz made significant gains in polls in recent months, and the current survey shows he has momentum in the home stretch.
In the governor’s race, Shapiro leads Mastriano by 2.1 percentage points, at 48.5 percent and 46.4 percent, respectively. Just 1.8 percent of respondents plan to vote for another candidate, and 3.4 percent are undecided. The Fox 29/Insider Advantage poll had the republican 7 points back.
In what is more concerning for Democrats, Wick Insights said that fully vaccinated people are responding to the polls more than unvaccinated or those who were vaccinated one time.
“In mid-October, we went into the field not knowing that boosted individuals were answering polls at much higher rates than vaxxed-not-boosted or not-vaxxed. When we recognized this imbalance, we made adjustments and then relied on weighting to correct the rest. Unfortunately, we do not know the exact percentage of likely voters that are boosted, so we just set it to 40% in each state,” the poll said.
“We may move that number up slightly in our next round and customize it in each state, but whatever we set will be at least 15 points lower than what we think is actually being collected right now by probability pollsters. So at the end of the day, compared to the other polls out there I would give this research top marks, but compared to our next round, in which we will design the polling methodology with this knowledge, I would give it a C+. Think of this article more as evidence proving that there is a selection bias that is impacting polling rather than a perfect example of how to treat that bias,” it said.
