OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
According to data from Michael Pruser of Decision Desk, Republicans have surpassed their Democratic opponents in securing new voter registrations in key swing states.
In September, Republicans added 337,107 new voters across 25 states, compared to 210,711 new Democrats and 302,944 other new voters, Just the News reported, citing the data.
In Pennsylvania, new Republican registrations nearly doubled those of Democrats, with the GOP gaining 60,710 voters compared to 35,864 for the rival party. There were also 32,698 new voters from other registrations.
In North Carolina, the GOP gained 19,434 new voters, while Democrats added 11,742. There were 45,274 other registrations.
Additionally, in Florida, the GOP continued its gains, nearly doubling the Democratic totals with 60,436 new voters, while Democrats registered 36,116 new voters and 48,919 others.
Republicans also saw a modest increase in deep-blue California, gaining 51,636 new voters compared to the Democrats’ 37,814. The state recorded 49,003 new voters of other affiliations during that month. However, this increase in new Republican registrations is unlikely to have a significant impact on the election this cycle.
While most polling shows a tight race between Harris and Trump in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, the vice president appears to be bleeding voters from a key demographic.
A new poll conducted by a bipartisan team for AARP and first shared with the outlet shows that Harris is leading with 49 percent of likely voters, compared to 47 percent for Trump and 2 percent for other candidates. Additionally, 3 percent of respondents remain undecided.
The survey, conducted from September 17 to 24 via landline, cell phone, and text-to-web, is the first AARP has carried out in the state since President Joe Biden withdrew from the race.
In an April survey, Biden was down 5 percentage points overall. Among voters aged 18 to 49, he was trailing by 1 point; now, Harris is leading by 14. He was losing independents by 6 points, while she is now winning them by 9. Additionally, she is outperforming Biden among Democrats, women, suburban voters, rural voters, and even those without a college degree.
However, the survey found that Harris is losing among voters aged 65 and older by 7 points.
“Harris’ biggest weakness is older voters. It is the biggest share of the electorate, and she is behind,” said Republican pollster Bob Ward, whose firm, Fabrizio Ward, took part in conducting the survey.
The economy appears to be a significant factor in why older voters favor Trump over Harris. Among voters aged 50 and up who prioritize inflation and high prices as key issues, Trump holds a 54-point lead.
Jeffrey Liszt, a Democratic pollster whose firm Impact Research collaborated with Ward’s on the AARP survey, noted that Harris’ biggest challenge is that Trump’s retrospective job approval rating is higher than hers. And “a big piece of that is the economy,” he told POLITICO.
“It’s been a core strength of Donald Trump’s that he’s got this branding around being a businessman and having been on ‘The Apprentice,’” said Liszt, whose firm polls for VP Harris’ campaign. “When you look back at the job that people think that he did, his job rating is better than hers. And again, that’s her core vulnerability and his core strength.”
Fifty percent of likely voters approve of Trump’s job performance as president, while 49 percent disapprove. In contrast, 45 percent approve of Harris’s performance as vice president, and 52 percent disapprove. Liszt pointed out that this is contrary to their personal popularity, with Trump underwater by 7 percentage points compared to Harris, who is only 3 points underwater.
Liszt noted that Trump’s challenges include Harris’s strong performance among independents and her consolidation of younger voters and older Black voters—two traditionally Democratic voting blocs that had been skeptical of Biden’s candidacy. Meanwhile, Ward said that if Trump “could expand his margins among older voters, particularly older women, he’s got a good chance to pull ahead in this race.
