OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Senate Republicans are getting some good news this week ahead of tightly contested midterm races with control of the chamber on the line.
According to a Sunday report by Axios, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and Pennsylvania GOP Senate nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz are both rising in their races as more and more voters find their Democratic opponents, Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes and Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, “too extreme” for the U.S. Senate.
The Daily Caller reports:
Johnson is polling five points ahead of Barnes in a race where 88% of Wisconsin voters described themselves as “extremely motivated” to vote in November, according to the latest Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research poll commissioned by the AARP. Although Barnes heavily carries the Democratic vote, the poll shows his numbers struggle with suburban voters, adults without a college degree, and Independents.
Similarly, Johnson is up by four points over Barnes in the recent Fox News survey of Wisconsin registered voters conducted by Beacon research. Barnes dropped six points among Wisconsin voters since August 2022, when the poll showed him leading Johnson, Fox News reported. Over the same time that Barnes began slipping in the poll, voters told Fox News that Barnes was “too extreme.”
According to Fox News, 44 percent of registered voters in Wisconsin say Barnes’ views are too extreme compared to 43 percent who feel that way about Johnson. Daron Shaw, a GOP pollster with Beacon Research, told the network that since the last poll, Johnson’s managed to control the political narratives over which of the two candidates holds the more extreme views in Wisconsin, which has bolstered his numbers.
“Barnes’ central claim is that Johnson is an extremist who is out of touch with mainstream Wisconsin voters,” Shaw told the outlet. “Over the past month, it looks like Johnson has used Barnes’ past associations with the ‘Squad’ and his environmental views to flip the script.”
In addition, 68 percent of Johnson’s voters are enthused about casting a ballot for him next month compared to 50 percent of those who support Barnes.
In Pennsylvania, meanwhile, Fetterman’s once-double-digit lead over Oz has shriveled to low single digits as GOP ads paint the lieutenant governor as an extremist who wants to let thousands of murderers out of prison.
“The Fox News poll shows Fetterman up over Oz by four points and Franklin & Marshall also has Fetterman up by four, while the Trafalgar Group and Emerson College both have Fetterman up by two points,” The Daily Caller reports.
Pennsylvania Senate Polling Trends
Fox: Fetterman +11 –> Fetterman +4
F&M: Fetterman +13 –> Fetterman +4
Trafalgar: Fetterman +4 –> Fetterman +2
Emerson: Fetterman +4 –> Fetterman +2
✅ Average: 5 point polling shift towards Dr. Oz from August pic.twitter.com/O7lJxYJcOp
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 30, 2022
“What’s interesting is the comparison between the two races … They weren’t that far apart in late August; both Democrats had an advantage, both Democrats were well-liked, but you can see what happens when a candidate like Oz finds a theme like crime,” said Franklin & Marshall College poll director Berwood Yost, who argued that Oz has pulled ahead by attacking Fetterman’s soft-on-crime positions.
Meanwhile, other recent surveys show the GOP attracting more minority voters.
On Monday, for instance, CNN reported that its own polling show black support for Democrats slipping as more shift to Republicans.
'A Huge Drop': CNN Reports on Black Voters Running Away From Democrats https://t.co/vQsAjtyhPt
— NewsBusters (@newsbusters) October 4, 2022
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten noted that while blacks are still overwhelmingly voting for the Democratic Party, the recent falloff in support could cost some Dem candidates in close races like Georgia.
“Look, they’re still getting 74 percent support in the pre-election polling right now but compare that to the final polling for 2020 President and 2018 Congress,” he said. “In 2020 it was 84 percent, 85 percent in 2018.”
Black support for Republicans has risen to 12 percent now from 9 percent in 2018 and 2020.
“That’s a huge drop,” noted CNN morning co-host Briana Keilar.
Also, Latinos are flocking to the Republican Party. An NBC News & Telemundo poll, also released Monday, revealed that 54 percent of Latinos are now in favor of a Democrat-controlled Congress, while 33 percent said they favored GOP control.
However, the 21 percent difference today is currently the lowest on record, and it is down from Democrats having a 42 percent advantage with Latinos over Republicans in 2021 when the difference was 65-23 percent.
