Voting is already underway in most states for November’s midterm elections—and things are already starting to come into view.
Republicans are gaining ground in the battle for Congress as a new Rasmussen Reports poll delivers encouraging news before November’s midterms.
The latest survey shows Democrats leading Republicans by just three percentage points, a dramatic narrowing over two consecutive weeks.
Democrats now receive 47% support among likely voters, compared with 44% backing Republican congressional candidates.
That represents a five-point reduction in the Democratic advantage since the earlier survey showed an eight-point lead.
For President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans, the movement offers a potentially important development heading into the final campaign stretch.
However, Democrats remain ahead nationally, and other polling organizations continue showing larger Democratic advantages.
Rasmussen’s previous survey placed Democrats at 48% and Republicans at 43%, producing a five-point Democratic lead.
The preceding survey showed Democrats ahead 49% to 41%, an eight-point advantage.
Together, those results reveal a sustained narrowing within Rasmussen’s polling series rather than a single isolated measurement.
Republican support increased three points across those surveys while Democratic support declined two points.
The latest findings come as Republicans fight to preserve their narrow House majority against determined Democratic challengers.
A Democratic takeover would give House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries control of the chamber’s legislative agenda.
Republicans would lose committee chairmanships and face potentially aggressive investigations into Trump administration policies and decisions.
The president’s legislative priorities could also encounter substantial resistance under divided government.
Rasmussen surveyed 1,794 likely American voters through telephone and online interviews conducted September 24 and September 27–30.
The survey carries a sampling margin of error of approximately two percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Four percent of respondents supported another congressional candidate, while another four percent remained undecided.
Those voters could become important in competitive districts where small differences determine the eventual winner.
The poll also reveals significant Republican strength among several demographic groups frequently discussed during national elections.
Hispanic likely voters favored Republicans by eight points, with 50% supporting GOP candidates and 42% backing Democrats.
That finding represents a notable advantage for Republicans within Rasmussen’s sample, although other national surveys differ.
White voters preferred Republicans 48% to 44%, providing another modest advantage for the GOP.
Among voters classified as other minorities, Republicans led 45% to 31%.
Black voters remained overwhelmingly Democratic, supporting Democratic congressional candidates by 70% to 16%.
Those figures illustrate the contrasting coalitions both parties will depend upon during November’s elections.
Republicans also maintained an advantage among older Americans, a group historically important in midterm turnout.
Voters aged 65 and older favored Republicans 53% to 43%, producing a ten-point GOP advantage.
Younger voters showed the opposite pattern, favoring Democrats by a substantial 54% to 32% margin.
That 22-point Democratic advantage among voters under 30 could prove important if younger Americans participate heavily.
The survey also identified a gender divide, although its findings showed meaningful support for both parties.
Women favored Democrats 48% to 42%, while men preferred Republicans 47% to 45%.
Republicans therefore led among male respondents while Democrats maintained a larger advantage among female voters.
Independent voters presented another significant challenge for Republicans despite the party’s improving national position.
Among Americans unaffiliated with either major party, Democrats led 42% to 33%.
Twelve percent of independents supported third-party candidates, while 13% remained undecided.
That substantial pool of uncommitted independents introduces uncertainty into the final weeks of campaigning.
Eighty-nine percent of Republicans supported GOP congressional candidates, compared with 87% of Democrats backing their party’s nominees.
That two-point Republican advantage suggests slightly stronger party loyalty among GOP respondents.
Rasmussen’s historical comparison provides additional context for Republicans celebrating the recent improvement.
Before the November 2024 election, Republicans led the generic congressional ballot 48% to 45%.
They subsequently won a narrow House majority, giving Trump unified Republican control when his second administration began.
The latest three-point Democratic lead represents a six-point deterioration for Republicans compared with that earlier position.
Republicans may also benefit from strong turnout among older voters and continued support from Hispanic respondents.
Democrats retain advantages among younger voters, Black Americans, women, moderates and independents in Rasmussen’s latest survey.
The Republican improvement nevertheless offers an encouraging sign for conservatives concerned about a potential Democratic midterm wave.
A shrinking national deficit could improve Republican prospects in closely contested districts if the movement continues.
This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
