OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
A new districting ruling in New York could likely result in Republicans losing control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2024, according to GOP strategist Susan Del Percio.
Since the 2022 midterm elections, when the GOP’s performance fell short of expectations, the majority has been steadily dwindling. After nearly a year of allegations and reports detailing his numerous lies and improprieties, Republican Representative George Santos of New York was expelled from his seat at the beginning of the month.
The GOP majority in 2024 is already in jeopardy due to the retirement announcements of other Republicans, such as former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who plans to step down at the year’s end.
Democrats in the state are widely expected to take advantage of the recent decision by the New York State Supreme Court, which mandates the redistricting of the state’s congressional districts, to reshape two to six districts currently held by Republicans. Last year’s midterms saw the Republicans secure the House majority in the historically blue Empire State by gaining seats in districts that had gone to Joe Biden in 2020. In the next election cycle, this demand for a new congressional map could contribute to reversing those gains.
During an appearance on MSNBC, Republican strategist Del Percio—whose client list includes Rudy Giuliani—suggested the same thing herself. Del Percio predicted that Republicans would lose the House majority in 2024 when asked about the impact of New York’s decision on the party’s chances in that year.
“Come January 1st, there is going to be a two-seat majority for Republicans, and they need every vote they can get. Frankly, I don’t see how they hold on to the House. Of the six districts, three are competitive. Two are most likely to flip. So it will change that landscape. And I think it will lead to a [House Minority Leader] Hakeem Jeffries speakership. Let’s put it that way,” Del Percio said.
This comes as polling shows former President Donald Trump has a 5% lead over President Joe Biden in seven battleground states.
In a survey by Morning Consult and Bloomberg News, Trump has a 47–42% advantage over Biden across all seven states.
The margins of victory for Trump in the following states are as follows: Arizona (by 3%), Georgia (by 7%), Michigan (by 4%), Nevada (by 5%), North Carolina (by 11%), Pennsylvania (by 1%), and Wisconsin (by 6%).
Not only that, but Trump is also gaining ground in Iowa, where the caucuses will be held on January 15th.
A Des Moines Register, NBC News, and Mediacom poll found that Trump’s support had surpassed 50% for the first time. The poll also revealed that 51% of respondents ranked Trump as their preferred candidate.
The survey found that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is at 19 percent, while former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is at 16 percent.
“The economy and health care are the only two issues of those surveyed that at least 6 in 10 voters in each swing state deem ‘very’ important in deciding who to vote for in the November 2024 presidential election. Trump has a clear lead with swing-state voters when it comes to the economy—a higher share of voters in each of the swing states say they trust Trump on this issue more than Biden,” Morning Consult reported in its survey.
“The picture is more mixed for health care. Though all differences fall within each state’s margin of error, in five of the seven swing states, Biden has a slight edge over Trump on this issue (+1 point in Arizona, +7 in Michigan, +3 in Nevada, +4 in Pennsylvania, and +4 in Wisconsin). Trump has the edge in the remaining two (+1 in Georgia and +5 in North Carolina),” the report added.
