OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Sen. Susan Collins’ plans for reelection could complicate Democrats’ efforts to regain control of the Senate in the 2026 midterms.
On Thursday, the Maine Republican told The Washington Examiner that she intends to run for reelection in two years. Maine supported Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race this year and is seen as a potential pickup opportunity for Democrats in the midterms, especially if a “blue wave” similar to the one in 2018 during Donald Trump’s midterms materializes.
“I’m focused on the appropriations process, not elections right now, but my intention is to run,” Collins said, according to the Examiner.
Collins running for reelection would be a boost for Republicans in the midterms. The senator, who has consistently been popular with Maine voters, would be in a stronger position to retain the seat than other Republican candidates. Although the state typically leans blue, Collins has managed to win over independent and Democratic voters in previous elections.
Regardless of whether Collins runs, Maine’s Senate race is expected to be one of the most competitive of the midterms. A president’s party typically loses seats in the first midterm election, so Democrats will be hoping for a favorable national climate that could give them a chance to unseat Collins, who will be a crucial vote in upcoming battles over GOP-led legislation and Trump Cabinet nominees, Newsweek reported.
Collins was last up for reelection in 2020, when she defeated former Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon with 51 percent of the vote, surpassing polls that showed Gideon with a lead in the state.
That was the closest race of Collins’ career, as some Democrats turned against her during the first Trump administration, especially after her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. In 2014, Collins won reelection by a 37-point margin.
Notably, Maine uses a ranked-choice voting system that allows voters to rank candidates by preference. This could prove decisive in 2026 if Democrats manage to keep Collins below 50 percent, as Sara Gideon came close to doing in 2020, noted Newsweek.
Beyond Maine, there will be few clear opportunities for Democrats in Senate races. North Carolina, where Republican Senator Thom Tillis is up for reelection, is likely their best chance to flip a seat, though Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in the state since 2008.
“Alaska, Iowa, Texas and Ohio (with a special election) are viewed as other states Democrats are likely to invest their efforts in, but all backed Trump by double digits this year, underscoring the difficulty posed by the upcoming Senate map for the party,” Newsweek noted further.
Collins is expected to play a prominent role over the next two years, as one of the few moderate Republican senators who could provide a check on Trump. She has already expressed skepticism about the president-elect’s potential nomination of Representative Matt Gaetz for attorney general.
Maine proved resilient for Democrats this year. Harris’ 7-point victory in the state was just 2 points shy of President Joe Biden’s 2020 win, despite the national popular vote shifting nearly 6 points toward Republicans.
Meanwhile, Senator Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, easily won reelection in Maine this month. The race for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District remains undecided, with Democratic Representative Jared Golden holding a narrow lead in a district that Trump carried easily.
Republicans have managed to pick up four Senate seats this election cycle, giving them control of the chamber for the first time since 2020. That said, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey of Ohio has yet to concede to his GOP challenger, Trump-backed Dave McCormack, even though the Associated Press called the race for the Republican.
That said, the vote margin was close enough to trigger an automatic recount by law.
