OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.
Things are not looking good for Democrat Rep. Adam Schiff as a new poll indicates that a Republican candidate is disrupting the Senate race in California, which is just months away and features three prominent Democrats participating in the open primary.
A Morning Consult/Politico survey of likely primary voters revealed that former baseball star and Republican candidate Steve Garvey received 19% of the vote, ranking him second only to Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, who secured 28% of the support. Democratic Representatives Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, who received 17% and 14% support, respectively, trailed the Republican in the polls.
The two candidates who earn the most votes in the primary on March 5 will proceed to the general election in November. Schiff’s probable victory in the Senate seat would essentially preclude Porter and Lee from challenging him in the general if Garvey finished in second place in the open primary.
The Cook Political Report classifies the seat as belonging to the “Solid D” classification. California voted by nearly 30 points for Joe Biden in 2020.
Biden atop the 2024 Democratic nomination and California’s preponderance of blue voters indicate that Schiff will likely prevail in the general election. Schiff would avoid a head-to-head matchup with another Democrat if the Republican finished in second place in the primary.
Schiff, Porter, and Lee have all been vying for the seat since the beginning of October, whereas Garvey only entered the race in early October. Schiff has led in the majority of polls by several percentage points, according to a compilation of surveys by RealClearPolitics.
According to filings with the Federal Election Commission, the Democrats have collectively raised millions of dollars for the race thus far, although Garvey has not yet disclosed her fundraising totals. As of now, Porter and Schiff have amassed $22.1 million and $21.5 million, respectively, for the race, whereas Lee has amassed $3.4 million.
In the blue state, Garvey intends to run a “common sense” campaign, whereas the Democrats cater primarily to the party’s left-wing faction.
The incumbent seat of the late Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein is currently occupied by Laphonza Butler, an appointee of Governor Gavin Newsom, who withdrew from her bid for a full term in 202Ifhat Butler, the former president of the pro-abortion organization EMILYs List, were to run for office, her vast political network, enormous fundraising capabilities, and incumbency advantage would pose a significant threat to Schiff’s campaign.
Meanwhile, Schiff’s campaign has taken other hits recently as well.
He is under fire over claims that he has been claiming two primary residences in Maryland and California for more than ten years while taking advantage of homeowner tax breaks.
The controversies surrounding Schiff’s residential claims may cause problems for his January 2023 announcement of a U.S. Senate run.
For years, Schiff has been the congressman who saved about $70 a year in property taxes as a result of this maneuver, which saved him $7,000 in total. Schiff did not request a comparable exemption for his property in Maryland.
Tax records reveal that 2017 was the only year Schiff paid property taxes in California using a personal check bearing his Maryland address, adding fuel to the controversy, according to CNN.
One insider told The New York Post that Schiff is “rarely at his California apartment,” which is a modest one-bedroom, one-bathroom residence.
“The revelation comes as Schiff faces stiff competition in the California Senate primary against fellow Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee. Deed records reveal that Schiff designated his Maryland property as his primary residence in 2003 when he purchased it for $870,000,” the NY Post reported.
“In 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012, Schiff refinanced his mortgage and consistently indicated the Maryland property as his primary residence. Los Angeles County deed records for Schiff’s Burbank condo, purchased in 2009 for $298,000, raise eyebrows as they were notarized in Maryland. The records feature alterations that replaced ‘California’ and ‘Los Angeles’ with ‘Maryland’ and ‘Montgomery County,’ listing Schiff’s Maryland address as the return address. This inconsistency further fuels doubts about his true primary residence,” the outlet added.
In an interview with CNN, Schiff’s campaign spokesperson, Marisol Samayoa, insisted that the candidate’s primary residence is in Burbank, despite an increasing body of evidence indicating otherwise. Schiff resides in Maryland.
Samayoa emphasized that Schiff and his wife had moved to the Washington, DC, area to spend more time with their children while he performed his congressional duties, citing several news mentions as well as his book.
Samayoa further claimed that Schiff claimed that both of his Maryland and California addresses are year-round residences and listed them as primary residences for loan purposes to differentiate them from vacation properties.
Nevertheless, Schiff’s biography on the campaign website from 2010 to 2014, which stated he was raising his family in Burbank, omits any reference to his residence in Maryland.
