Advertisement

Population Shift From 2020 Census Likely To Benefit Trump In 2024 Election

Advertisement

OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author's opinion.


A new analysis of 2020 Census Bureau data is better news for former President Donald Trump than it is for President Joe Biden, should the two face off against each other again next year.

The Electoral College map is looking better for Republicans, generally, as “red states such as Florida and Texas picking up Electoral College votes, while blue states such as California, New York and Illinois lost them,” The Western Journal reported.

According to Ballotpedia, 13 states lost and gained electoral votes following the last census. Texas, for instance, gained an additional two congressional districts/electoral college votes. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each picked up one as well; three of those — Florida, Montana, and North Carolina — trend red or are genuinely red.

At the same time, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia each lost one. Of those, California, Illinois, Michigan, and New York are blue or trend blue, while Pennsylvania is leaning that way. Ohio and West Virginia are reliably red.

“Biden won the 2020 race 306-232 in the Electoral College. However, with the new electoral vote breakdown in place, Biden’s win in 2020 would have dipped slightly to 303-235, according to the site 270 to Win,” The Western Journal noted, adding:

Those three votes could make the difference in 2024, based on the results of a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey published Thursday.

The poll showed Trump ahead of Biden in Arizona (47 to 43 percent), Georgia (48 to 43 percent), Wisconsin (46 to 44 percent) and Pennsylvania (46 to 45 percent) in a head-to-head matchup for the White House.

Advertisement

The 45th president also leads Biden in North Carolina (47 to 43 percent), which Trump won by 1.3 percent in 2020.

Late last month, a leading pollster some consider the top in the nation predicted a potential “electoral landslide” for Trump next year as Biden continues to slide in approval ratings and “Bidenomics” continues to eat into ordinary Americans’ paychecks.

In an interview with radio host Michael Patrick Leahy for The Tennessee Star report on Tuesday, pollster John McLaughlin discussed what current state and national polling means, what polls to watch, and how to analyze new polling as it comes out in the months ahead.

He predicted:

…[I]t would be an electoral landslide because when you look at it, due to the census, there’s a little more electoral vote our way.

But if you look at the toss-up states from last time and you say, ‘This means he’s going to win Wisconsin, Michigan’ – that’s why I went to Detroit last week to stand up for union workers, going to lose their jobs in China.

Arizona has 11 electoral votes.

Advertisement

Nevada 6 – we could win that. That was close last time.

We’ll win Georgia because they changed the election law to require a voter ID, not just for in-person, but also for absentee – there’re 16 electoral votes there.

We got a shot at Pennsylvania in spite of their trying to manipulate the mail-in votes. There’s 19 electoral votes there.

And Ohio has 7 – Ohio, we’re gonna win.

Advertisement

But there are 77 electoral votes that would switch.

So we would go from last time, 232 electoral votes – we’d be at 304 already.

Leahy added that the more legal trouble Trump faces, the more his polling numbers rise.

“We see, apparently, every time the Department of Justice or a state left-wing district attorney indicts Donald Trump, his poll numbers go up,” Leahy began. “I’m looking at the Morning Consult poll today. Just came out: Trump 61; DeSantis 13; Haley 7; Ramaswamy 7; Pence 5; Christie 3; Scott 1; Burgum 1. Trump by 48 points.

“Morning Consult has Trump and Biden tied, but I’ve seen Trump up 9 in the Washington Post poll; and Trump up 3 in another. The polls say it’s looking good for Donald J. Trump,” he said.

Advertisement
Test your skills with this Quiz!